Thursday, January 22, 2015

SUZLON ENERGY - UPDATE

Suzlon is one stock I recommended earlier @ Rs.24 which is currently trading around Rs.17. Today company announced that they signed binding agreement with Centerbridge Partners LP for 100% sale of Senvion SE for Rs.7200 Cr ( Approx.) . Link HERE  . This valuation is almost 40% below what they paid to acquire this asset year's back .Personally I feel , this valuation may not reduce  Suzlon's debt issues as expected .On the other side  company's equity expanded significantly due to conversion of FCCB which it raised to acquire this asset  and the asset itself is now divesting .Suggesting to book loss for the time being and we can re-look at a  later stage when more visibility arise

86 comments :

  1. Dear VP,

    Would you please update your view on ASIAN GRANITO?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Many people asking same question after the entry of Dolly Khanna in this stock during latest December quarter. No change in my previous positive opinion.

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  2. Holding hindtin from 109. Any updates sir?

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  3. I appreciate your update! Good work Sir.

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  4. Dear Sir ---- a big thank you to you from the bottom of my heart. Many people suggest to buy but when it comes to selling no body has any clue. Your timely feed back to sell with a proper explanation (+ or - in terms of a share value does not matter, part of the game) is very very useful. Take and god bless !!!

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  5. Thanks for the update sir!!! Please let us know view on vinati organic?

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  6. Thanks you sir, for updating us.

    Sir why this NathBioGene is sliding slowly slowly, I hope there is no change in fundamentals or any other issue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As you are aware , seed is a seasonal business and June quarter is the best for this industry .

      Delete
  7. Good call VP sir ! Nice to see a recco. to book loss amongst lot of recco. to buy !
    Afterall booking loss is also part & parcel of the game though nobody wants to do it. Booking loss in any scrip needs lot of courage and also to give such call also needs true investor-spirit. You seem to be really taking care of retail investors ' interests !! Hats off sir !!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is no meaning in running away from realities :)

      It is part of investing in stocks and we need to face such situations once in a while, till we are here.

      Delete
  8. Sir thanks for updates regarding suzlon as i was considered this as positive but after your updates i go in detail and you comments are really true...i booked my marginal loss today....sir can you please give your veiw on L&T finance housing thanks in advance

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    Replies
    1. L&T finance is suitable for long term passive investors

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  9. VP Sir, can one add Hindustan Tin works at current levels to average, or is more downside possible ?

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    Replies
    1. I don't think there is any meaning in changing opinion only because of negative price movement without any negative changes in fundamentals.

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  10. Dear VP sir...
    I am one of your follower and do research before investing.
    Sir i am fully invested in skm eggs bciz i see huge potential in skm eggs in future.
    Sir suzlon was a good company when you recommended...it was growing at a good pace but later on management tried to expand themselves at faster pace.
    They were doing well and took debt to expand themselves but they felt uncomfortable which resulted into poor performance of company and huge unpaid debt.
    Sir mgmt is good but only one mistake ruined the company.
    Best wishes to you.
    Thanks!!!
    TANUJ SINGH

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    Replies
    1. Yes , let us wait and see further actions.

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  11. Great thanks. My opinion was the same and sold the stock earlier today.

    It also appears that Suzlon will lose a lot on the top line as well, as Senvion apparently contributed a lion's share (not sure of the exact amount).

    Regards

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  12. Thank You for the advice Sir. I was thinking in the same lines and after your mesg, I sold my stock.

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  13. Thanks VP Sir for interpreting the company move in detail

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  14. Hello Sir, what is your call on VIDHI DYESTUFFS and DYNEMIC PRODUCTS, Thanks Much !!!

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  15. Sir, DK entered into IFB Industries with 1.3% holding. Are you still positive on it like you were before when it was trading around 200?
    Pls advise on IFB Industries?

    http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpperent.aspx?scripcd=505726&qtrid=84&CompName=IFB%20INDUSTRIES%20LTD%20&QtrName=December%202014

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    Replies
    1. i may be wrong but i think they may have mixed up the shareholding of ifb industries

      (http://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/stockreach_shp.aspx?scripcode=505726&expandable=6)

      and ifb agro industries (http://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/stockreach_shp.aspx?scripcode=507438&expandable=6)

      they seem to have given ifb agro shareholding pattern in ifb industries looking at the total shares of both the companies

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  16. Sir, What stocks can be studied for capturing renewable energy theme? Any solar energy based business looking good to you?

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  17. Sir,

    Given the talks around river interlinking, do you think companies which manufacture large pumps such as Kirloskar brothers, Dynamatic, KSB can be bought at the present moment?

    I know you have recommended ROTO and Shakti pumps earlier but they are mostly in retail or small pump rating applications. River interlinking would need pumps which are needed in large lift irrigation projects.

    Best Regards
    Manish

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    Replies
    1. I have no idea about the final word on this and the methodologies to be adopted for this

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    2. Thank you Sir and I do appreciate your candour.

      However, in situations such as these - where there MAY be a future prospect of accelerated growth in a sector, what methodology or strategy would you use to find a right investment opportunity.

      Thank you once again for the time you and effort you are taking for all of us.

      Regards

      Delete
  18. why don't you have a look at Rossell india .... it has three verticals ... defense .... tea and hospitality ...

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    Replies
    1. This stock is currently trading around Rs.90 which I already recommended @ Rs.38

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  19. Sir, now shall i buy suzlon energy shares

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    Replies
    1. What answer I should give to this question ?

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    2. LOL.. There is a proverb in Tamil where they say, "You listened to the story all through the night and in the morning you are asking if Rama is Sita's uncle??!!"

      Delete
  20. Thank u VP sir for ur timely updates, wish ur eye strain gets well and keep posting our queries.

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  21. Sir kindly write review for l&t fin.its profit rised and good company..its not moving.
    Sir i can say that i am holding hind tin at higher price n if something negative i dont
    Want to loose..its informative as i follow u for last 3years thsnks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If a company is good , at some point of time investors will find it out and give deserving valuation

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  22. Sir,
    Kindly advise on freshtrop fruits

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Minimum ten times in the recent past I replied that I am not tracking this stock at the moment.

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  23. Sir r u tracking any energy stock. Particularly solar one, since India is in path of renewable energy.

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    Replies
    1. Encouraging usage of solar energy in India does not means Indian solar companies will benefit in a big way . Under the current duty structure it may help only Chinese companies . Actually it is a tricky situation .On one side we say calling for 'Make in India ' but on the other side we want to encourage cheap non conventional energy usage . If we fix a policy to help Indian manufactures of Solar products , it may increase the cost of products compared with Chinese products .Let us hope for some solution in coming budget to create a level playing field .

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    2. And what is ur view on the anti dumping policy will it help Indian companies. And the solar plant of 1000gw project, what would be the color in future. And definitely this budget release will speak very much of it future. Thanks for ur view.

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    3. VP Sir ,

      you are bang on target. I had tracked solar industry very closely and value chain is follows:

      Polysilicon & Poly Ingots - Earlier only MNC , now mostly Chinese ( few companies announced earlier to come with Fab in India but could not happen, recently JPA also announced but no progress)

      Polysilcion Wafer - Mostly Imported from China and prices are so low that Indian companies cannot even dream of making raw material at price of Chinese Wafer.

      Cell: Here many Indian companies present like Moser Baer , Websolar etc etc. Still it is Challenging to meet price expectation compared to Chinese prices.

      Module: Mostly made by Indian companies. Chinese product are also sold in retail market but quality is not good as only cheap product is sold

      Power project: Many of this is under International bidding . Many Indian companies are actively growing their presence here.

      Even if Indian govt give subsidy or support to this sector it is indirectly helping Chinese companies as all base material coming from China.

      Hope this info help some of the readers.

      AV.

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  24. Sir, Why are you not publishing my message. This is the 4th time i am writing. Do you have any updates on PCS Tech ?

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  25. What are the prospects for Indosolar?

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  26. Hi VP,
    I msgd u a no if times but my msg not reflecting in comment section.
    I wanted ur opinion n outlook on Elder Pharma.
    Any insight or overview from you is appreciated.
    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same question on same company answered below the posting available in following link

      http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2014/09/alphageo-india-update.html

      Delete
  27. VP Sir,

    May be a silly perspective. Senvion is the reason Suzlon started going into loss. Now that it is SOLD, wouldn't SUZLON be seeing profits in coming quarters.? This will have huge impact in share price right.? Kindly enlighten me.

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    Replies
    1. Suzlon's balance sheet damaged a lot due to high debt it raised to buy out Senvion . But by the sale of that asset at this valuation Suzlon can't repair its balance sheet fully. Due to the sharp fall in crude oil prices, there are chances for less preference for non-conventional energy sources till crude rebounds , world over.

      I never said to write off Suzlon , but on expectation of range bound price movement for some long period , just suggested to exit now and keep it in your watch list. Whenever company start to show some definite signs of turn around let us consider a re-entry in it.

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    2. Please put a like button for your comments sir!!
      we have gained much just by reading your comments

      Delete
  28. Thanks VP Sir for your valuable comments. How do you see the impact of Indian government plan to increase wind power generation from 22 GW to 60 GW. Also this could be taken up with US presidents visit for new investment during next week which will be very positive for Suzlon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not saying non conventional energy generation will not improve. But as an investor in listed cos , more interested to know whether the situation will help India listed companies or not

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  29. Thank VP Sir,
    I release my SUZLON holding as per your advice and this is a great blog in my view to give investors regular update of their holding to prevent value trap and those investors who are not in full time in this market.

    Need your view on "Gujarat Automotive Gear Ltd." "BSE CODE: 505712" as per study its' fundamental and growth is showing great future.Please throw some light on it.

    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not tracking it , hence no comments

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    2. Feel very sorry for you, now that Suzlon has jumped almost 55% in the last two weeks.

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  30. Dear Sir, any views on

    1) Hester Biosciences
    2) Century Plyboards
    3) Somany Ceramics would be appreciated.

    All three are growing midcap with decent last quarters. Thanks for making me see the value in midcaps as compared to slow bluechip elephants. Ever grateful.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hester and Somany are decent companies ,not tracking Century Plyboards.

      Delete
  31. Sir, What u r view on TINPLATE COMPANY OF INDIA LTD. I bought it @68rs, now its going down, can I hold it for long term.

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  32. Hi,

    Need your opinion on Fluidomat as its balance sheet is quite healthy. Your Long Term View?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fluidomat is currently trading around Rs.290 which I already recommended @ Rs.29 . Stock already turned as a multi bagger for my old readers . Neutral at CMP

      Delete
  33. Hi,

    Please provide your views on ipca laboratories. It has fallen a lot today because of ban on Ratlam Plant. If I am not wrong, this is the only plant where it is exporting to US and it got banned. Can we buy at current price?

    Regards,
    Kumar

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Long term investors can invest as an SIP. We can't say a specific time frame for resolving such issues.So patience is the key.

      Delete
  34. Thanks for this update. Fortunately, I booked profit.

    What is your view on Keltech Energies Ltd?

    Regards,
    Nawaz

    ReplyDelete
  35. Shailesh J ThesiyaJanuary 23, 2015 at 7:33 PM

    Sir
    your view on parled technology if you track..
    This is EPS suddenly increase to 32 rs as stock price is 18 Rs.Could not understand this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was a one time case , company sold major portion of its business itself during that period.

      Delete
  36. Sir what's your views on Liberty shoes?? Is it average /?

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  37. Sir

    Kindly provide your views on following stocks

    1) Prozone Properties
    2) Sanghi industries
    3) Rajoo engineer
    4) Pressman Advt
    5) Vidhi Dyestuff

    And last your stock HMVL :)

    Kindly let me know if these stocks are good to buy at current level.

    Thanks & Regards
    Anuj

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tracking only Sanghi Ind and HMVL and my opinion on these already discussed in recent past more than once.

      Delete
  38. Sir, Do u track any stock from realty sector????

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  39. Sir,
    What is your view on GAEL
    thanking you

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  40. What is ur update on salzer. I hv bought 200@265.Pls guide me should I book the loss.

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  41. Respected VP Sir, I have 100 shares of Suzlon @ arround Rs. 80 so what can I do. please advise me.

    ReplyDelete

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