Wednesday, November 19, 2014

SKM EGG PRODUCTS EXPORT (INDIA) LTD - UPDATE



Yesterday I received lot of queries about SKM Egg Products , seeking the reasons for lower circuit in this stock. To avoid repeating replies , I believe it is better to reply through a general posting  below ...


In my option , there is mainly two reasons for Yesterday’s lower circuit


#    An inevitable correction after a sharp run up. During the past few weeks SKM appreciated substantially and it reached a stage were a correction and consolidation is must for its further movement. Whatever be the quality of a company ,no stock will turn as multi bagger in one stretch if the movement is genuine and not manipulated. ( For example ,before reaching Rs.300 level from Rs.12  , Arrow coated closed in lower circuits at  multiple times) . These are price points where  weak hands and short term players are exiting and new investors getting chances to enter in. 


#      I know , you may raise your eyebrows for a posting like this and ask why this separate posting is necessary  if I feel there is nothing special in this correction.Yes , there is something special .Some section of investors are speculating on a possible negative impact on company due to Japanese recession  and a bird flue case reported in Netherlands . The recession in Japan is not a new news and they are reporting negative growth in last six months . But SKM reported its best ever business during this period which indicating least impact on its business.Management’s efforts to expand business to various countries will reduce dependency of any one or two countries and help to de-risk in the case of geographic concentration. The bird flue case reported from Netherland seems as an isolated one and I  believe this will not negatively affect SKM in any way but may be some positive impact . Netherland is the largest exporter of  poultry products to global markets. Any restriction of export of poultry products from Netherlands may  result in sharp spike in product prices in global markets and this may even give windfall gains for companies exporting products  from  unaffected countries.


This is my few words in the current situation.As retail investors , we are always in search of ‘multi baggers’ and many multi baggers  slipped from our hands in the past only because of our tendency to make some quick bucks by  trading with our holdings. To avoid such temptations one should learn more and more about the company in which we have investment and try to generate strong conviction rather than looking into trading screen each and every minute.Some readers even requested to indicate ‘ where this correction will end ?’ . I don’t think anyone can give an accurate answer for this and it is purely depends on supply –demand equations. But I strongly believe , this is one stock  one can hold with a long term view without bothering much about corrections which is healthy and unavoidable in any market.

Disc: Since I am holding the shares of SKM , my views may be biased . Suggesting to take investment decisions only after own due diligence .

68 comments :

  1. VP Sir,
    Thank you very much and I agree what you mentioned on stock correction. The stock zoomed from recommended levels and after 129 it corrected for just 1 day. I was surprised to see your posting as it has happened earlier also. Not sure why small investors were worried with this one?

    I think it will raise awareness among people to learn instead of making quick buck.

    Thanks again sir!

    Take a Bow sir...!

    Sir,

    Reg Bambino Agro foods I saw the results are decent and half yearly results equally good and its moving in line with results. Do you see similar trend for second half too as I know the promoters laid back attitude was highlighted by you.

    The dividend also increased which is encouraging too.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I know you will not approve my msg ( as you never post till now) any way thanks a lot for your view on skm correction I hope atleast now the small investor will relax....
    thanks again for your care..

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello VP Sir,
    Need your view on 2 stocks if you track...
    1. Mirc Electronic
    2. Shivalik Bimeta

    ReplyDelete
  4. sir some stocks u have said to exit like himalaya foods...etc.,sir could u give a list of stocks u said to exit...n a complete list of ur recommendations..n many queries shall b answered n no repeatative questions shall b asked...

    ReplyDelete
  5. sir a big fan of urs n i like the way u reply to my idiotic questions...absolutely witty n humourous sir of late missing that thing in ur replies...sir is ur name DEEPAK ...as many say u n dolly khanna related so placing VP in between DK we get DVPK sounding DEEPAK and hence a name ValuePick selected by u:)))

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dear Sir, could one expect good Q3 quarter for skm due to more demand of these kind of products in winter season..Does this company have potential to change fortunes of retail investors? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear Sir Good Morning. Thanks for the feedback...

    It seems most of your followers are trader and not investors...they cannot resist one day correction.
    I have done my analysis and will add more of this stock..it has all the qualities of a multibagger.. Most important is its products...EGG.
    ......Egg production in India is likely to surge from the current level of about 7,500 crore to about 9,500 crore by 2015. India exports over five crore eggs worth over Rs 250 crore each year and the winter season is the peak season for exports. Tamil Nadu is India`s egg export hub and accounts for over 90 % of India`s total egg exports.The global market for eggs is currently at over 2,000 billion and is rising at a growth rate of over 60%....... By ASSOCHAM analysis......With this datas in hand SKM has a long way to go....

    Regards
    skdc

    ReplyDelete
  8. VP ji, Do you track nila infra? It looks to be the company improving every year. Your thought on it?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Sir,Is Standard Chartered a Good Option To Buy Now???

    ReplyDelete
  10. In every recession food industry is the last one to face any impact. Fine example is 2008 recession affected in the middle east. There is no recession affected to food retailers, distributors and manufacturers.

    Basic food like milk, bread and egg will not have any impact.

    Najid

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dear sir,
    appreciate u r efforts. Agree in total. Will buy buy not sell skm. Jayakumar velu

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thank you VP sir for your valued clarification and restoring confidence.
    Regards,
    Nachiket Joshi

    ReplyDelete
  13. Excellent Post Sir Thank You For Such A Great Post

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks Sir, Really your message is like a god's words and it helps me on taking the right decision at this point of LC. Thanks again, sir.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Its good if lower circuit few more days :) people should understand how to invest long term perspective ..Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  16. Dear Sir,

    I tried asking this earlier, but probably you are already overwhelmed by the posts. Request you to please help me understand the positives/negatives of the issue of preferential shares by Suzlon management first tranche of ~3 crore shares @ 15.5 + and second of 7 crore + @18.7+

    How the same should be analyzed from from long term investment perspective ?

    ReplyDelete
  17. R u ashamed about your old unsuccessful recommendation kirloskar electric and vulcan that you choose not to respond to querries.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not ashamed ,I am not a god for 100 % accuracy in stock market

      Delete
    2. I averaged it vulcan at 12. and bought good quanity.now sitting in profit.similarly in TIl and Mangalam cement.

      Delete
    3. People always with negative eyes will see only negative things.....why don't you see the 98% accuracy in the past history.? Even the Kirloskar Electric and Vulcan will give you the best return if you have the patience.....

      Delete
  18. Sir,

    Thank you for your comments on SKM on trading in lower-circuits. I thinks small and long term investors need not worry much about the trend.

    RP

    ReplyDelete
  19. dear sir, u r right and thanks for educating.
    sir , ur view on Avantel, its sep qtr results r good, can any on buy @ corrent price. pl, comment

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current price of Avantel is above Rs.170 which earlier recommended @ Rs.65 in the following link

      http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2012/01/avantel-good-show.html

      One may book part profit

      Delete
  20. Respected Sir, what's your opinion on De nora India ltd, since I am asking this question repeatedly plz answer me to take a decision to invest.
    Regards,
    Kiran

    ReplyDelete
  21. Dear VP,

    Appreciate your hard work for all this research. Can I know what's your take on 'Wanbury' and ' Grauer and Weil", if you track them?

    Best,
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi,

    In response to your update regarding SKM, do you feel that there is still value in this stock from a long-term perspective from CMP of 113/- ?

    Regards,
    Jasjit Malhotra

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If I feel there is no value in it , will I hold it ?

      Delete
  23. Sir

    I am holding United Drilling Tools at 71 level. Please share your update on the company. Thank You

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Keep an eye on oil drilling related activities on the background of falling crude price.

      Delete
  24. Dear VP, is CMP of Waterbase Rs. 60/= a good entry point for long term?Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  25. VP sir can u plse guide me on arvind remedies.? tks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Uncertainty is higher due to overdependency on tender based govt orders

      Delete
  26. Sir,
    appreciate your good work, specially straight forward stance...
    may god bless you..

    ReplyDelete
  27. Dear Sir, whats your view on Hindustan Tin??
    You also didn't post result update on website..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Commented my opinion on the next day of result

      Delete
  28. Sir,
    Correction in V2 retail because of similar reason?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Never think stocks will move like rockets in one direction , profit booking and correction are part of it

      Delete
  29. Hi VP sir,

    Thanks a lot for helping the common people. I would like to know your view on one of your old recommendation: Balaji Amines, still available @75?

    Is it a good price to enter and hold for 1-2 yrs?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pls don't try any time bounded investment in stocks

      Delete
  30. Dear Sir, Whats your view on SPEL Semiconductor Ltd.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Sir
    Plz give ur update on Nucleus Software
    Thank U

    ReplyDelete
  32. Home appliances segment seems to be next bull run please tell ur opinion on this
    Shall I enter ifb and whirlpool at this price

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are quality cos , use correction to enter in it with a long term view.

      Delete
  33. Is Banaras Beads still a good buy at CMP?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Dear vp sir. I'm new in stock market and want to know what is the meaning of TOPLINE and BOTTOMLINE growht in refarance of any company's quarterly or yearly results..and thanks in advance to litrate new comers like me..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pls search Investopedia for such general queries

      Delete
  35. Sir, you are bang on target. Some market movers are speculating in this stock. And after some corrections, they will move out and small genuine investors will come into play bringing stability to SKM and Capital trust...

    ReplyDelete
  36. I was looking for a crockery company like TTK prestige which is way above the reach.

    Butterfly is not showing any strength, and i don;t see pegieon listed in India.
    Do you have any such company is your mind.

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not many listed players , already recommended Laopala around Rs.75 which is now Rs.2250 ( adjusted to stock split post recommendation)

      Delete
  37. Dear Sir
    can we enter V2 retail at the current level, what is the expectation in 12 months timeline, kindly let us know

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think ,company will survive beyond 12 months.

      Delete
  38. Sir,

    Excellent and very understandable feedback, made me to understand the real multibagger path...

    Looking forward your feedback regarding Vinyl Chemicals and Redington..

    ReplyDelete

Followers

Tweet TopOfBlogs