Saturday, October 4, 2014

PATELS AIRTEMP (INDIA) LTD - REPEAT



 


Quality of promoter is very important while selecting stocks for long term hold.Possibility of frauds and fabricated results are very high when the mood in the street is bullish with higher retail participation.Generally , in a bull market , promoters tend to show good results in few quarters to boost share price either for their own exit or to raise fund at higher price .So ,selecting a stock during bull phase need extreme care and we should look beyond the published results and frequent announcements. Considering all these factors ,re-looking into a company which I recommended earlier and still believe there is lot of steam left in long term.

                                   Patels Airtemp (PAT)  is an Ahmedabad based company manufacturing Heat exchangers,Pressure Vessels,Refrigeration and Air Conditioning equipments.Their products are mainly used in industries like Chemical, Power,Refinery,Cement,Fertilizer and Petro Chemicals..etc.For the past many years lot of projects from these sectors were stuck due to various reasons like environment clearance ..etc which is expected to move on in near future. Strict pollution control norms implementing in developed countries helping Indian chemicals manufactures to boost their export by adding additional capacities here.India is expected to grow as a global hub of chemicals and pharmaceuticals in the years to come. Stable price of crude and crude derivatives will help the growth of petrochemical industry . All such developments will indirectly help companies like Patels Airtemp to grow business. Last year company  entered into a long term supply arrangements with a leading global manufacturer of heat exchangers for supply of this product with stringent quality standards.

                                    Revival in user industries and effect of foreign supply agreement is already started to reflect in its order book position. As on 31 March 2014 , company have confirmed orders worth Rs.136 Cr ( Rs.40 Cr order book in previous year) which is highest ever in its history . This order book giving comfortable visibility for next few years. Aggressive purchasing of shares by promoters from open market is another factor which  increasing the confidence level .For the past one years promoters are hiking their stake through open market purchases and same is still continuing  even @ Rs.129 .( Check purchase disclosures   HERE and HERE) .Last year company paid back its entire long term debt and there is no long term borrowings in its books as on 31 March 2014.We know , the past 2-3 years were very difficult for any company operating in capital goods sector . But company paid back all its long term loans and secured the highest ever order book during this period, which is very important point to note. I believe ,company is at the tip of an inflection point and the future will be far better than the past . Since I have already posted about this company just six months back , not explaining further.

                                             Company reported a top-line of Rs.70 Cr , net profit of Rs.4.67 Cr and an EPS of Rs. 9.20 in last FY .PAT is an uninterrupted dividend payer for the past seven years and paid 20 % in FY 2013-14. This is one of my preferred stocks from this sector which is currently trading around Rs.123 and listed only in BSE.

Link to Company Website HERE 

Disc: Holding PAT.

133 comments :

  1. Please share your view on amco India which you recommended at 36

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Later suggested to exit and not postive at present

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. Dear Rahul

      While analysing any information for investment purpose, you should take utmost care .A single letter may change decisions like in this case.I never mentioned to Sell AIMCO but the above messagewas about AMCO INDIA, look once again.

      Delete
  2. Pls share ur views on ybrant digital and international paper.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sir what's your view on Polyplex corp from a 2 year perspective? What are the medium term triggers for the stock?

    Do you also track aro granites? what's your view on this?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not a supporter of time bounded investment in stock market

      Not tracking Aro granite specifically but not very postive on Granite Industry in general.

      Delete
    2. Sir, can I know what are your concerns with respect to Granite industry?

      Delete
  4. Mol teck packing has run up a lot. Still can we buy or wait for some correction

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Risk level is different at different price points .Not expecting any deep correction in it.

      Delete
  5. Sir your view on Kesar Terminals ?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Please Try to avoid commenting as Anonymous

    ReplyDelete
  7. Sir ji

    Our poly plex is falling continously ... why?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not known about any negative. Actually fall in crude price is positive

      Delete
  8. Hi Sir, Is it a turnaround company? Mar '10 sales are around 70 cr and Mar '14 sales are same 70 crs... No growth from past 4 years...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I never used the word 'Turnaround' ,because it never reported loss.

      It is very easy to ignore its flat sales, but one should understant the situation of industry for past 4-5 years in which this company is operating . You will get a clear picture by comparing the financials of its close rival GEI Industrial Systems with this company

      For me , company could report even a flat sale in last few years itself is big positive considering the situation of Industry and I clearly mentioned this suggestion is based on the expected future and not on the past.

      Delete
    2. Thank you for your kind clarification...will research further...

      Delete
  9. Sir please let us know your view on agarwal industrial corporation ltd trading @ 102 manufacturer of bitumen and working in logistics also. ...
    What about pondy oxide ......

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sir please give your views on Arvind remedies and GAEL Thanking you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Major risk of Arvind Remedies is its business model .They are mailnly supplying to state governments against tender based orders .Uncertainity is higher in such a business model .

      Not tracking GAEL

      Delete
  11. Hi VP Sir,

    Whats your view on NCC rights issues.... and engineer india which has zero debit.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Strongly agree with ur views on patel airtemp Sir

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dear VP Sir,
    If you follow Mindteck, then pl provide ur views for one year holding for this stock.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Sir, please share your views on caplin point

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock already gained 5 times from the recommended level.One can still HOLD

      Delete
  15. Dear VP sir,

    Please provide your views on the recent downturn in Suzlon and Bilcare - is this a good opportunity to accumulate again?
    Also provide your views on Kitex Garments.

    Posting it for the 4th time. Kindly approve the comment sir.Your views are a valuable in my portfolio strategy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Practically difficult to repeat answering same questions frequently .Just check what I suggested to those raise questions below the posting of LAOPALA UPDATE AND SMS PHARMA UPDATE in last week

      Delete
  16. sir what is view on capital trust. one of your old recommendation

    ReplyDelete
  17. most respected sir,
    your view on patel logistics. company has mcap of 100 cr as against turnover of 650 cr.

    ReplyDelete
  18. vp sir lloyd elec is somewhat a parallel to the better valued growth stock 'PAT' you rec.However will appreciate your views for a long term switch fromLLoyd to PAT??

    ReplyDelete
  19. Sir,
    Your view on incap ltd
    Regards
    Vishnu

    ReplyDelete
  20. is jain irrigation is suitable for fresh investments.checked your old rec.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is some structural changes happening in the business model of Micro Irrigation companies in India.Eralier customers need to pay only the subsidy minus amount to companies for implementing projects .Due to delay in subsidy payment many of the players stopped this method and now the clients should pay the full amount and then clients itself should collect subsidy from government. Till farmers familiarise with and accepting this method there will be some slow growth phase through which many of the companies are passing now.

      Delete
    2. VP sir,

      You recommend to buy...
      Then inform to sell/partial sell at the right time...
      And even share important information of this type on questions from numerous followers...

      After all this hard work, even reply patiently to some 'anonymous' critic...

      All I can say is 'Thank you'

      - Sandeep

      Delete
  21. Thank you for your recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hello VP Sir,

    What is your view on Rico Auto and Rubfila International?

    Regards,
    Mohit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not tracking Rico

      Positive on Rubfila

      Delete
  23. Sir, please share your views on NBCC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current price of NBCC is around Rs.660 which earlier recommended in the below link @ Rs.93

      http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2012/04/national-buildings-construction.html

      AT CMP , neutral on it.

      Delete
  24. Respected SIr,

    Can I buisy Lao Pala at CMP.I know u had recommended it earlier and went all the way to 1668 but since the stock split has happened it chas came down.
    Also Is Capital First still a buy at CMP

    lease please do reply

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear

      Laopala is a decent company with good brand , operating cash flow, declining debt level ..etc...etc.

      This stock originally recommended around Rs.70 before stock split which means it already appreciated more than 20 times (adjusted to stock split) . So while buying a stock at this much price difference you should be aware about the difference in risk level at both these price points and decide whether your situation is suitable to bear the same and only then act accordingly.

      Delete
  25. dear vp sir,

    earlier u suggested kirloskar engine at cmp 182, know at current cmp can i invest in it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Above anser is applicable to this one too

      Delete
  26. Dear Sir your view on Tilak Nagar Industries

    ReplyDelete
  27. Sir
    Pls share your view on Mayur Uniquoters for long term,recently Westbridge and a MF have taken stake in.
    Rgds

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on this stock for long term

      Delete
  28. Sir any views on Talbros Auto & Gabriel? Also do you like Shakti pumps at cmp? I hope my comments are published for this time....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on Talbros Auto
      Not tracking Gabriel India
      One can Hold Shakti Pump

      Delete
  29. Your kind view on Delta Corp please

    ReplyDelete
  30. Hi Sir,
    Please share your views on poddar developers ltd.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Hi, your views on shakti pumps (india) ltd?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Whats your view on Oberoi for long term? Can I buy it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not tracking it .Mahindra Lifespace and Godrej Properties are decent cos from same sector

      Delete
  33. Earlier you suggested Asian Grantine and NOW saying not tracking Aro Granito & not bullish on Indian Granite Industry; what a misleading person.!

    ReplyDelete
  34. Dear

    Before criticizing anyone , we should ensure we are 100 % correct.Otherwise it is better to keep silent. I never suggested any company named Asian Granite but suggested one company named Asian Granito which is a known producer of different kind of Tiles. It is not a Granite Company and more than 90 % income coming from Tiles.


    Granite is an Industry without any branding power as against Tiles and hence there is hardly any entry barrier .

    In addition to that till there is a concrete law regarding natural resources mining including Coal, Granite ..etc , there is some risk from that angle is also there .

    Above all , If I am correct granite industry is going through tough time in past many years and there is no big change happened now ( You will get an idea from the below Link)

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/andhra-pradesh-granite-industry-in-dire-straits/article5231347.ece


    For the past few days there is lot of messages about this specific company from many or single 'Anonymous' , but I could not find anything special in a company especially from an Operating Cash flow negative one. If anybody know any interesting development or policy announcement positively affecting this industry is going to happen ,please comment here which will be helpful for others too.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hi,
    Why to entertain such comments if they are not having guts to comeout and post by their identity.
    I see every other day such fake people are posting spams.
    Replying to them will not stop them from doing it.
    Such post are carried but haters, spread by fools and believed by idiots. We believe in you sir but first we should convince ourself before we buy however there are some ppl who bindly invest and later criticise. I think GTS helps us here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My mail box and message box flooded with questions about this stock in past few days .Two times mentioned I am not strictly tracking it but again mails ..and messages .....Replied just to stop this :)

      Delete
    2. Sir, just a suggestion, kindly block such email addresses (after going through the "options" inbuilt by email providers).

      It is unfair for such posters to bother you like this.

      Delete
    3. VP Sir,

      Truly appreciate all your efforts in comprehensive research and guidance. Adding to that you are available to respond to all the comments/ requests. Its truly sad to see people criticizing such an amount of work that is benefiting so many people.

      You are one of the few, where I have learnt to have an open mindset, have clarity of thought, spread knowledge on how you do things... Hats off and yes, no one would wonder, if you do not respond to anonymous criticizers :):)

      Delete
  36. Dear vp sir,
    Pls give ur view on KENAMETAL & FORBES
    Thks in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on Kennametal hich recommended earlier

      Not tracking Forbes

      Delete
  37. Sir,

    Your answer on granite industry was clear last time also. Seems like this guy is just speculating in this counter n does not understand the difference between granite n tiles...

    Please Can you share your views on Manappuram finance.. its an nbfc with high dividend yield..available around 1 time book n are looking to diversify from gold loans business ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not strictly tracking Manappuram Fin.

      Delete
  38. Hi VP sir,

    Whats ur view on Anik Industries and Tantia Constructions.
    Will be awaiting for your reply... Thanks a ton !!!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Sir your view of PTC o
    India financial ltd

    ReplyDelete
  40. Sir,

    Thanks for fantastic picks as always. Can you advise if we can enter guj borosil at cmp.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock recommended @ Rs.8.Not suggesting fresh entry now.

      Delete
  41. Please give your opinion on wanbury ltd

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not strictly tracking . If I am correct, C-Pink is a popular brand owned by this company but mismanagement is the issue of this company.

      Delete
  42. Hi Sir,
    With an order book of worth 130+ cr the future looks bright but a company executing 40 cr worth order suddenly have to handle 3 times of it, raises few question marks .... (considering that the order delivery is this fiscal year )
    1. So they have the capacity in the current system to implement it on time.
    2. Or do they need to raise more funds in order to create a system which can support it.

    Having a good order book but not able to execute it or take loans in order to expand the current production facility can be a issue in this case ? Please share your views .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. L&T is getting orders for crores and crores each year. Do you thinking all these are executed directly by themselves.Fabrication works may subcontracted and quality inspection done directly ,if necessary. Don't think all these orders will be executed in one or two quarters.

      Delete
  43. Sir, what is your view on KEC international and Jyoti structures? I am holding it @122 and @59 respectively.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Sir what ur view about haldyn glass

    ReplyDelete
  45. Sir, really appreciate all your extensive research and detail. Just wanted to know your thoughts on Nilkamal. Do you think the announcement of just 10-15% is bad sentiment for the stock?

    ReplyDelete
  46. Sir,
    I requested your view on incap ltd, but you seems to have missed my query,
    Please do comment on this.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  47. Good morning, appreciate your views on westlife development. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Company's performance not justifying its price eventhough they own India rights of a great brand.

      Delete
  48. basant agro tech...sell hold or buy more?plz reply

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Suggested around Rs.3 . Neutral at CMP

      Delete
  49. Sir, you had recommended Aries Agro multiple times & though the stock has not moved, the results have been fairly good. (From 150 Crores to 300 Crores in last 4 years).
    It would be great if you could share your updated views on the same.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock not moved even when this company performed well. I think people misjudged this company as a fertliser company and assaigned low P/E

      Delete
  50. Plz share your view on Capital first. Can I enter at cmp. I hope I get lucky to get your valuable reply. Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Answer given above for Laopala is applicable here too

      Delete
  51. Hi VP Sir,

    Can you please have a look at below stock and provide ur expert advice.
    Natural Capsule
    National Fittings Ltd
    Glance Finance.

    Have sorted above stock based on following criteria:
    Good Sales growth
    More then 50 promoter holding
    Debt to equity is less then 1
    Good year on year profit

    Your view will help me analyzing the stocks... Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not strictly tracking any of these cos. Natural Capsules is in a sector with reasonable potential ,but its bottomline is stagnant for past many years which raises questions about managements ability.

      Delete
  52. Dear VP sir,
    Can you pls provide your view on idbi bank and Sharon bio science. Sharon bio has corrected for past 2 weeks, can we enter at this range.
    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  53. sir whats ur view for hexaware and manjushree ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe, there is better IT plays compared with Hexaware

      Not tracking Manjushree

      Delete
  54. Dear Sir, The success of Havells's stock encouraged me to think of another brand from same industry ANCHOR ( by PANASONIC). Pls share the script name if it is listed.
    thanks Deepak

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is a direct Subsidiary of Panasonic Corporation . not listed here.

      Delete
  55. Dear Sir

    Could you please advise your view on Cairn India, Wonderla & Shirpur Gold

    ReplyDelete
  56. Patels Airtemp is also on upper circuit today with 20% gain. For last 3 months, I have been trying to buy stocks suggested by you. Unfortunately, I have never been able to buy at the cmp recommended by you. The only stock, I have been able to purchase is "Polyplex" at 268 and this is giving negative returns to me. :-(

    ReplyDelete
  57. I truely appreciate the work you are doing n picking the real solud businesses for the masses.could toy please share your thoughts ob Century plywood and Grauer and Weil

    ReplyDelete
  58. Dear VP sir,
    Read that you are positive on Rubfila...Rubber prices are at record low and many remain so for next few years..

    Can u pls expain its impact

    David
    Banglore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't think the entire benefit of correction in raw material price will directly reflect in Rubfila's books. Product price may also dip . Anyway , expecting some improvement in margins.

      Delete
  59. Dear Sir, What's your views on Lloyd electric and Fedder lloyd. Appreciate it if you can share your views on those. Thanks!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From White Goods space ,IFB Industries Ltd is my first priority

      Delete
  60. Hi sir i buy rajoo eng ltd pls suggest me what should i do

    ReplyDelete
  61. Hi VP sir

    What is your View On Kwality Dairy , Company is trading at PE 7 against industry PE of 22 , Companies Business Expanding at good rate ,
    I know u might be not tracking it , But please Provide Your Views Regarding it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure about promoter quality , hence no comments

      Delete
  62. Could you please comment on Shardha crop care at CMP for long-term investment

    ReplyDelete
  63. Stock appreciated almost 10 times from recommended level.Camlin Fine recommended @ Rs.56 when its FV were Rs.10 ,Now it splitted in 10:1 ratio and currently trading @ Rs.56

    Neutral at CMP

    ReplyDelete
  64. Sir,

    Do you track Man Industries. Very similar in profile, (as it appears to me) with good orders in hand. Regular dividend paying, decent promoters (cannot vouch) have execution capacity and capability. They are also buying from the open market 5% allowed. Due to the space they are in, the stock has fallen quite a bit. Debt to equity of 0.6.
    Would you suggest the stock?

    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Hello vp sir,
    I need your assistance about following stocks which i have kept in my portfolio for long term.please give your present view

    1. Gujarat borosil @28.50
    2. Polyplex@292
    3. Vks project@0.45
    4.GTL Infrastructure@3.35

    Pl suggest sir
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Already posted about two stocks, not tracking other two

      Delete
  66. In your second post regarding Patel AIrtemp, you had informed us that while going through the annual report, it was noted that pending order of 136 lacs against confirmed order of 40 crores. You said that when you contacted the company, they said it was just a typing mistake. Now, we can see confirmed orders of 136 crores. Is it a coincidence?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Company already issued a clarification in this matter in BSE

      http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=3a20ae50-ab20-491d-8a7a-b0d1169275ca

      Then re-filed the AR with correct figures

      Delete
  67. Sir Patel Airtemp has appreciated a lot from your Recommended Price .Is the stock is still hold,Fresh Buy or one can book Profit.Sir Please Suggest

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My stock recommendations are not intended for 4 days hold.

      Delete
  68. what are your views about deccan goldmines?

    ReplyDelete
  69. Dear VP,

    What is your views on Pennar Industries (BSE: 513228) !!.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Dear VP
    Came to know about this web site very very late, just 3 days back, and going thru al the blogs, i feel i have missed a lot.

    kumar

    ReplyDelete

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