Saturday, February 8, 2014

GTS - 4 ANSWER -------------- NATH BIO -GENES INDIA LTD. A RARE OPPORTUNITY





















Ever since I started this blog , I have recommended four pure play seed companies here – JK Agrigenetics ,Advanta India,Kaveri Seed Company and RJ Biotech. By the grace of god , three out of these four already turned as multi baggers( Adjusted to stock Split and De-merger) and the recently listed RJ Biotech returned more than 50 % in short span of time . This happened not because of my smartness but due to sheer growth prospects of this sector in a country like India with huge population on one side and shrinking agricultural land on the other side. I still believe the prospects of this industry will increase when time passes. Recently government hinted its  willingness to permit field trials for more GM crops after realizing that the adoption of  scientific methods are the only remedy for mounting food inflation pressure in our  economy .Eventually there is every chance for such a permission  to feed the increasing population in a highly populated country like India. At least five years are necessary to introduce a new variety of seed from R&D stage to commercialization after going through years long field trials and various regulatory approvals. Because of this reason,  when government permits field trials,  it will open up huge opportunities for existing seed companies like this company  who are at various stages of R&D to develop such varieties  .  On this backdrop now I am recommending the newly listed Nath Biogene India Ltd ( NBIL)  as a  strong buy even after considering some negative  points related with the company which will discussed later. 



History

Even this company listed only recently in Indian bourses , this business was listed since 1994 under the company named Nath Seeds. Nath Seeds came out with an IPO at a price close to Rs.100 per share  each ( If my memory is correct)    even 20 years back .It was the first pure Indian seed company made an IPO even when this business was at very nascent stage.Later the seed business of Nath Seeds de-merged into Nath Bio-Gene in 2004 ,but the de-merged entity took 10 years long waiting to get listed in stock exchanges.Even the main seed production  business divested to this company earlier , the entire business (including distribution) transaction  completed only in last year .Now each of these companies consists of business as follows - Nath Seeds(  real estate ,Infra development ..etc) , Agri-tech India  (corporate farming ) and Nath Bio-Gene ( Seeds and Bio-technology).



Promoters having vast experience in this industry and company  having good R&D facilities . Company is front  runner in many varieties of seeds including BT Cotton and being present from 1979 ,Nath is the most experienced seed company in India. Actually it was the only seed company which did not depend only on Monsanto’s BT  technology to develop BT Cotton in India .Company developed BT cotton using  fusion genes (cry 1Ab+Cry 1 Ac) – technology available from Biocentury Transgene ,China - in 2006 and sub-liscencd the same to many other seed companies including  the seed division of United phosporos  (now Advanta India)  .Later in 2012 ,NBIL tied up with Monsanto for their BG-2 version of BT cotton technology and thus Nath Biogene becomes the only company in India offering BT cotton based on American as well as Chinese technologies . Nath Bio-Genes is the first seed company in Asia Pacific region to get ISO 9001 certificate. Company producing seeds using most modern technology and having facilities to produce seeds from 30,000 acres of land ( own and contract farming basis) span across Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.Company’s R&D collaborators list includes National Centre for Plant Biotechnology at IARI, New Delhi ,International Rice Research Institute at the Philippines, Biocentury Transgenes Corporation (China) Ltd, Biotechnology Research Institute at Beijing China, National Rice Research Institute at Sichuan Province in China, Guard Rice in Pakistan, Cotton Development Agency (Ministry of Agriculture), Govt of the Philippines, etc.These collaborations helping the company to access and utilise the new Germplasm and breeding materials.Its main R&D laboratory is located at Aurangabad and having two R&D farms one each at Isarwadi (150 Acre) and Aurangabad ( 40 Acre) .In addition to this Nath also possessing three R&D sub stations one each at Medchal (Andhra Pradesh) , Faizabad (UP) and Abohar (Punjab).In the last three years company introduced many new varities in various segments which includes Jagannath-2 and Arjun-21 ( Cotton), Big-B ( Bajra) , Singhum ( Maize) and Tehelka(Rice).Many other new products like NMH 1007,NMH 1008 ..etc are under various stages of testing and evaluation. In 2011 ,company got permission for conducting large Scale trial of some of the NBIL Bt. Cotton hybrids in Pakistan.One most important positive about Nath Bio-Gene is its presence in a wide variety of Seeds and its large marketing network.Company is present in Cereals,Oil seeds,Vegetables,Cotton..etc and producing more than 90 variety of seeds and  present across India through  13 offices,1000 distributors and 5000 dealers.

The Negative Side

As mentioned at the beginning ,company de-merged its business into three in 2004 .But the management kept its share holders in dark for the past ten years by not listing its stock in any stock exchanges.I am not sure about the real reason for that whether it is only due to poor corporate governance or delay in getting listing permission after the scheme of arrangement  .Another point is all other listed companies from the same group – Nath Seeds(  Teak plantation, real estate ..etc) , Agri -tech India (corporate farming ) and Nath Pulp and Paper  are trading at lower valuations. But all the mentioned companies having either no sizable operations ,no potential or not an attractive sector as far as investors are  concerned. Even after considering all these negative factors I strongly believe there is still huge value in this stock. Nath Bio-Gene is currently trading at a P/E multiple of less than 7 compared with the average P/E of 20 prevailing in this  industry.

What is Ahead ?


There is lot of companies re listing after a gap of many years but financials of such companies are nothing to comment.But here the case is totally different .Company’s financial performance improved during this 10 years and the prospects of industry even brighter now compared with the time of its IPO. One more point is ,at the time of de-merger of various divisions about ten years back the reason mentioned by the management for such an action was only for inducting a strategic partner into the company.Till now they didn’t inducted any partner and in the recent annual report company again mentioned the necessity to induct such a partner for further improvement in technology. I believe this listing after a gap of 10 years is mainly for that purpose .Many MNC players are keen to enter in Indian Seed market through associations with Indian seed companies.In such a situation Nath Bio-Gene will be an excellent target of such companies. If it happens there is every chance for improvement in corporate governance issues related with the company. In recent times company recruiting lot of professional for various posts in the company ( Check it HERE) which also indicating company is in an expansion drive and planning to enter into new varieties and territories.
OVERSEAS FORAY - THE UNTOLD STORY AND A HIDDEN TREASURE 

Another exciting part and a possible mile stone in the history of the company may be the recent developments in its overseas operations.Since 2005 company started various options to explore the overseas opportunities.Few years back company permitted by Philippines government to conduct open field testing and multi location field trials for its fusion gene based BT cotton along with its technology partner from China . (Read related news items HERE ,HERE and HERE) These  experiments conducted with the association of various govt agencies of Philippines. Completion of experiments originally scheduled  in 2011-12 but delayed due to  various regulatory issues .Nath is the only company got such a permission and  completed all these trials now .Cotton Development Administration and Ministry of Agriculture Philippines showed complete satisfaction on NBIL's fusion Bt cotton technology and hybrids developed through this technology. Now all formalities are completed and NBIL is confident of getting  the approval for commercialization of Fusion Bt cotton in Philippines in this year (2014)  itself . This means company is going to reap the benefits of its past many years effort.Philippines is a country consuming 50,000 metric tons of lint cotton per year and about 97 % is coming from  import.Philippines'government is planning to  displacing the imports by indigenous production mainly Bt cotton varieties.Since Nath and its technical collaborator enjoys a near monopoly situation and it is opening a huge opportunity for the company from next year onwards.Entry of any new company in that country should go through all tedious processes which will take many years (Nath itself took more than 5 years to reach commercialization stage). This situation offering a windfall for NBIL which is expected to commence in near future.

Listing and Price difference
 

As I mentioned above ,Nath Bio-Gene listed in last week in both exchanges. According the new opening price fixation methodology implemented by SEBI few months back , opening price of any newly listed stock will be calculated through a call auction system with 45 minutes duration.In case of this stock during this period somebody sold just 20 shares in NSE @ Rs.20 even though there was buyers in BSE @ Rs.50. Thus the opening price in NSE fixed @ Rs.20 and BSE @ Rs.50 to start with .This price difference is still going on,but I believe only blinds will sell in NSE when  there is buyers in BSE @ higher rate and the difference is significant.So chances for order execution in NSE is very less for a buyer is concerned till there is buyers in BSE at higher rate .Due to this reason I took BSE rate as a benchmark for valuation purpose .


Financials and Valuation


For the past many years company reporting steady growth in its key business .See table below  :





On an equity base of Rs.16 Cr ,In FY 2012-13 Company reported an EPS of  Rs.7.34. In the latest June quarter Company reported a top line of Rs.110 Cr and a net profit of Rs.36 Cr  as against Rs.96 Cr and Rs.26 Cr reported in the same period of last year. June quarter Result HERE  - ( There is a calculation error in EPS calculation in the result where 2012 June quarter EPS indicated as Rs.38.54 instead of Rs.16.67  ,but profit figure is correct .EPS calculation on old equity causes for such an error) .EPS for this is June quarter is Rs .22.44 .One main point to note in the result of any seed company  is ,about 90 % of sales of seed company’s are from  first quarter and most probably the next three quarters will be in loss ( You will get a clear idea about this seasonal trend by checking the quarterly financials of JK Agrigenetics) . Here in this case March quarter result also provided by the company which is surprisingly  in profit .What I mean is , annualising the performance only on the basis of June quarter result may give a wrong picture .Even after considering this fact ,I expect an EPS of Rs.9 -10 in this full year.Average P/E ratio of seed industry is 20 or above and this company’s P/E on expected FY 2014 EPS is still close to 5 which offering very huge valuation gap.




Some skeptics may argue this company deserves only low valuation on account of delay in listing ..etc.But ,to realise how hot this sector among investors ,we should check the valuation of some recently concluded deals  in this sector.Camson Biotech is another listed company from this space .If Nath’s corporate governance is bad ,the same of Camson may be called as ‘worse’ .Few years back its auditors itself questioned its accounting practices .Recently Bio Harvest ( part of CLSA capital ) took 20 % stake in Camson Biotechnologies at a cost of Rs.65 Crore .If CLSA paid Rs.65 Crore for a 20% stake in that company what should be the valuation for Nath Biogene which is superior in many aspects .( Camson is mainly a regional player with limited seed varieties in its portfolio compared with Nath Bio-Gene) .CLSA valued Camson for Rs.325 Cr (approximately) but the entire Nath Biogene is available for  less than 100 Cr. There is no justification for such a low valuation for the pioneering company in seed business even after considering every negative aspects. If we look through these angles , even @ Rs.100 we can’t say it is over valued .




 There was some  problems in this company in the past mainly connected with mounting  debt issues.Asst Re-Construction company(ARCIL) extended loans by subscribing debentures during that tough times.But  liability to ARCIL was still there till  last year.In last year , as part of a scheme of arrangement , promoters subscribed 47 lakhs shares and infused Rs.4.7 Cr into the company .Loans from ARCIL also converted into equity by allotting 48 lakhs shares.Thus the company cleaned its balance sheet and reduced it long term debt to just Rs.1 Cr now.As I mentioned at the beginning, prospects of sector is very bright and company’s experience and recent expansion plans giving lot of hope. Commercialisation permission for  BT cotton in Philippines is a game changer for the company which we can expect at any time, and it will place NBIL  at par or above many large seed companies operating in  India .


Its old share holders (IPO of Nath Seeds in 1994,de-merger to NBIL in 2004) may be not aware about the changes happened in the  potential of its business during this 20 years.In addition to that they never got a chance to encash this stock during last 10 years .This may be the reason somebody sold this  stock at a slump sale price on the initial days of listing .
These kind of value mismatch opportunities are rare in stock market and if we are not ready to utilise it with some risk on account of excuses like valuation of other companies under same management,delay in listing ..etc ,there is no meaning in remaining as a small cap investor in Indian Stock Market.As I mentioned above ,Since seed is a seasonal business reporting loss in all quarters except June quarter is a possibility but that is  not a reason to sell this stock . Keep it for long term .

 Link to Company Website HERE

Link to the latest issue of Company's in-house  publication  HERE


* As per new listing norms NBIL listed in 'T / BE ' segment with 5 % circuit limit ,but on completion of 10 trading days it will be shifted to B group with 20 % circuit limit ,which may happen by 11/02/2014

Disc: I have vested interest in NBIL




99 comments :

  1. you said the market cap is less than 100 crores with down side variance of 20 to 30 % but the market cap is only 30 crores. you misled me by giving me wrong info

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    1. see in BSE website it is only showing 33 cr. i did research based on bse figures and i eliminated this co from my list companies cos to be reviewed because of that.

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    2. Please raise allegations after verifying facts .Company having an equity of 1.6 Cr shares and at CMP of Rs.50 ,what is the market cap ? .Is it close to 80 Cr itself ?

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    3. Wrong data in some website is not my fault .In BSE website itself under the share holding pattern it is clearly stated no. of total shares as 1.6 Cr

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    4. i think clues given by the site is correct. perhaps people might think in a wrong way. please take my comment in a good spirit.K Hari

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    5. sir till today iam unable to buy this stock pic and iam trying to buy but its UC, can I try to buy @ current cmp price in coming weeks

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  2. Sir, great pick. Hopefully able to buy soon. Don't see upper circuits opening soon though:(

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    Replies
    1. Try on Tuesday when circuit limit change took effect.

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    2. Great idea sir, even though would be 20% up, will still try at higher price.

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  3. Dear sir what is your view on empire industries, its having diversified business, good clients in food & vending machines, oil & gas field,

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  4. But promoters allotted the shares to themselves at Rs.10/- indicating that the Management is also DISHONEST apart from not having Corporate Governance standards as pointed out by you. Who knows they will again Slump Sale the business to foreigners and siphon funds leaving small shareholders in lurch. It has happened with many other listed companies. Let me conclude by saying WHATEVER APPEARS TO BE TOO TRUE TO BELIEVE, IT IS SO.

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    1. Promoters took these shares not when its share price @ Rs.100 but at a time company was in debt trap , and as a part of scheme of arrangement approved by the lenders.More than that if they took 47 lakhs shares ,they allotted 48 lakhs shares at same price to ARCIL which is an institution owned by large public sector Banks.You should not forget even retail investors were willing to sell it @ Rs.20 just few days back. If you are an investor interested to invest only in top class companies with prime importance to safety ,it is not for you .It is for those having guts for risk taking on expectation of a possible multi bagger .If these type past negatives are not there I don't think you can touch it @ even @ Rs.150.

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  5. Sir, what does it take to find ideas like this?
    It was listed in front of all of us recently, but still couldn't notice this!

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  6. Seems like a very good pick as always. All the very best. Your knowledge sharing efforts are very appreciable.

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  7. Nath Bio-Genes came up in my short-list but I was spooked by the presence of ARCIL. Your brilliant detailed analysis has cleared many doubts.

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  8. when and how, you think the price will become same in BSE and NSE?

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    1. Only God can say . Same case happened rarely in the past too and then one exchange lifted the circuit limit for a single day to tide over this issue.This may happen on request of the concerned company to the exchanges.

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  9. Great Pick hats of to you !!! just wanted to know since i am still learning about stock market why is there such a difference in price in bse and NSE and dont you think Sebi should take action against it... just a query since i havent seen such difference....please reply and thanks in advance....take care

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    1. Price difference happened not due to any manipulation but due to a single trade happened during one hour periodic call auction section on listing day .I don't think it fall under the preview of SEBI since it happened accidentally.

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  10. Very interesting stock, appreciate your effort & open mind to share your picks...all the best sir

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  11. Congratulations to all who could identify this Hidden Stock. I too tried to search it from web sites of MoneyControl, BSE, Edelweiss and ICICI Direct but unable to locate. The reason may be non availability of its data due to its recent listing. My and all other like me would request to VP and all who identified it to inform us such available resource and help us as to how to scan it from the available resources. Thanks to all in advance. ( This stock will definitely run from monday due to low liquidity but not having regret for not grabbing it at earlier stage, as i believe at some point of time it will available at good valuation again, similar was the story with Granules, Sabero, Sequent, Rossell etc..... these stocks were trading at much higher price at the time of research report by VP, latter they declined along with market but due to its business model they run again. for that hats off to VP for his indepth research.)

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    1. Using any screening software is not my practice to select a company .Because such softwares screening is based only on published numbers even without considering one time income/expense etc which will lead to wrong decisions and huge loss. So the one who find correct answer may be in a position to say about it ,if they have used any such methods and willing to share it . I believe it is their sharp thinking process help them to find it out and not any software.

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  12. Sir what is your view upon apar industries Q3 result it comes down from my purchase price of 155 but i will hold

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    Replies
    1. Replied for same question posted yesterday below previous posting.

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  13. Do you see something good happening in basant agro tech

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Promoters stake hike through open market is positive,may give return after testing our patience.

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  14. sir you forgot to mention basant agro in the list of your seed based stocks

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    1. Basant is not a pure play seed company .Its major portion of income is coming from Fertilizers .If it de-merge seed division let us expect value creation.

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  15. The company is yet to provide september/december quarterly results. Any idea when they will provide those?

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    1. Company was not a listed one till the completion of December qtr .So I don't think the filing of result upto Dec qtr is mandatory .

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  16. Valuepick, you have posted some financials from 2007 to 2012 .... i could not find the company financials on any website .... where did you get the same from ?

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  17. I don't think it is publicly available from any website . But believe it , it is 100% true

    :)

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  18. Replies
    1. Not started any business in that company.

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  19. Hi Sir wanted your view on new development of thomas cook where they will merge with sterling holiday so how do you look at scheme of things as thomas cook will get access to sterling holiday s 19 resort in 16 holiday destination in india,...pls reply

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    Replies
    1. So far so good .Good for long term ,let us hope company will raise resource to fund such acquisition without much stress on its balance sheet

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  20. Sir,
    Please provide your view on HEG's results, it's profit jumped 400% YOY.

    Thanks,
    Sunil

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock already recommended ,no change in opinion .Use search option

      Delete
  21. Sir,
    Could You Please tell me your views on " Panasonic Energy India Company" and " Flex Foods" ???

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Not tracking Flex Foods,Pan.Energy showing some improvement in past few quarters .Keep monitoring the raw material cost.

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  22. Thank you sir for this awesome value pick. Any view on Selan Exploration Technology ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VP sir recommended this stock some times back use search option.

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    2. Stock already recommended ,no change in opinion .Use search option

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  23. Hello Sir
    Please post this as i have asked this in earlier posts as well, what's your view on Sterlite Technology as Optical Fibre play. Please reply so that i can take a final decision on it.
    Thanks.

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  24. Hi Valuepick, I must congratulate you on the commendable analysis and resourcefulness in research.. one question though-on the BSE website under shareholding, point number 4 in the notes section mentions that the company further alloted 95.7 lakh shares which are not part of the share holding pattern declared.. hence, should not the total number of shares be 2.55 crores and the eps considerably lower?

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    1. Dear Friend

      I am really happy to see this question and avoided the explanation for that to check whether any of my readers are seriously taking some efforts to study the company in deep .

      I sought an explanation for this and the situation is as below.

      It was a clerical mistake and the said remaining shares already allotted to promoters and ARCIL in last FY itself. But these shares not listed so far .You can verify this by checking the number of shares listed mentioned in the circular in the following link:

      http://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20140124-13

      In this circular it is clearly indicated that only 64,34,000 shares are listed and the remaining 9.57 lakhs allotted to promoters and ARCIL are not listed so far .

      To ensure the allotment of these shares you can check the note no 3 of the Balance sheet of Nath Bio Genes's for FY 2012-13 .There under the head " Share Capital" it is clearly mentioned that 9.57 lakhs shares issued during 2011-12.

      So what has happened is - these shares are already issued but not listed so far but for calculation purpose for latest June quarter result company already considered the expanded equity ( Rs.16 Cr) and derived the June quarter EPS as Rs.22.44 ( Rs.35.90 Cr profit divided by 1.6 Cr shares) . So no more shares to be allotted and consider for EPS calculation but the said shares to be listed ( Since it is allotted to promoters and ARCIL only not much impact on selling side expected on listing of these shares) .Under the head " Financials and Valuations " in my above post I mildly indicated that there was an error in the EPS calculation of 2012 June quarter ( Not in this June quarter) .Anyway , note No.4 in share holding pattern should be corrected as " 95.7 lakhs shares are not listed but considered for calculation of EPS "

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  25. Sir, whats your take on Aegis logistics Q3 results? Though, consolidated results are encouraging but standalone are poor compared to last...what was market's expectation that bringing down stock price. Their Haldia project got functional from jan 14 - should we expect good results here onwards? your views please?
    Thanks

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    1. Nowadays number of retail investors are very less in Indian stocks .Most of them turned as day traders or positional traders .They create positions just few days before the result declaration ( even without payment to broker on a BTST basis) to gain few quick bucks on result day .Whether it is good or bad they will exit immediately post result.I don't think real long term investors should panic seeing fall in price post result if result is OK .such movement will settle down within few days.

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  26. Sir, earlier you had recommended Cummins India in month of May 2013.
    May I still accumulate this stock ? Also need your suggestion regarding Emami Ltd.

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  27. Good evening VPji,
    I am waiting for your comments on wockhardt results.
    I was expecting some clearity regarding USFDA issue , but nothing is there, no timeline.
    I am a long term investor.
    Advice needed.
    Thank u

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    1. When to conduct inspection is the decision of USFDA and the company can only invite them when company is ready.So from the side of company , it is difficult to assure a time frame within which Inspection takes place . I feel 29 % fall in profit already discounted in the market and not expecting any big fall on account of this .If you are a long term investor ,HOLD it.

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  28. VP sir great stock reco.
    Kindly suggest me what is you recommendation on Nath bio? whether it need to be bought in BSE or NSE?Kindly clarify

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  29. Sir,

    one basic question. what is the advantage to farmers because of this genetically modified seed compared to natural seed?

    thanks,
    Raj.

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    Replies
    1. Higher productivity is the key , low pest attack,drought tolerance ..etc

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  30. Hello VP ....Interesting pick .. I am one of the early investors in Kaveri too and definitely feel this sector has a long way to go... hence will closely montor Nath bio gene... thank you for the detailed analysis and information.

    I have a basic question, how does one accumulate such low trading stocks in large quantities without letting the price jump?

    Cheers!
    Niranjan

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  31. Dear VP, I am considering fresh investments in Den Networks & Bharati Infratel. Both seems futuristic business. What is your view on these.

    Regards

    Neil

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  32. Sir please share your views on isgec heavy eng ltd

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  33. Sir, just messaging again. I'm worried about the way Ion Exchange is falling. I'm a long-term investor, would appreciate your view.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Mainly it is due to Current non fancy in Engg and Infra Development sector .This attitude may change once there is strong govt which can take policy decisions quickly.

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  34. Sir why my queries r not published..
    Pls suggest abt Gokex results, AGC Network and Kappac pharma..
    Thanx in anticipation..

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    Replies
    1. Dear Aman
      In last one week I received flood of messages and mails which is beyond my capacity to reply .No other way but to exclude some.In case of your message I am not tracking Gokak Textiles,AGC and Kappac Pharma. In case of Kappac ,prima facie it seems as a pump and dump game.

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  35. Dear VP Ji,
    You mentioned from 11th Feb., the upper circuit will be 20%. But today also it closed on 5%. So no chance gettting to buy. When we can expect to buy?
    Also, can we average Apar Industries now or wait for some more downside?
    Earlier I missed Liberty shoes, can we buy now at CMP 127.
    Plz give your guidance on all of the above.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is the rule made by SEBI.It should also come out from 'T' group group but nothing has happened.

      Details are available in the below link

      http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/article2817758.ece



      If exchanges itself violating rules ,we can only remind them ,nothing more than that .

      Delete
  36. Sir,

    Your views on Marksans Pharma, is it good to enter at the current levels of Rs. 17 , with a time frame of 6-12 months , what are the targets you are anticipating?

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    1. Not recommending @ CMP which is already appreciated more than 300% from the recommended level.

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    2. When it was around 20 level- you were saying hold. Now you are saying no.

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    3. Read the reply and question once again . Where I said "NO" to Hold ?

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  37. Hi Sir.. Nath bio seems to still be in T2T segment today despite it being the 11th trading day for the scrip.. any idea what is happening?

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    1. Replied above.If time permits and you are interested send some mails to exchanges to remind it

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  38. dear sir, i bought orient bell ceramic at 95 rs on ur recommendation. but it is at 45-48 range now. what is ur opinion on this shall i hold or book loss or else u suggest to shift any other stock. i didnt get any reply for the same query i have asked u so many times. will u plz help me in this regard

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    1. Balaji, This a sectoral issue and Orient bell is sufferent for being part of the sector which is not doing weel at the moment. Recovery will take time, and then the prospects of Orient Bell might turn around. In any case one has to wait atleast 12-15 months to re-evaluate it nothing can be said until then.

      I came accross a press release that the CEO is stepping down. VP ji any view point on this new development?
      Mr. Vijay Shankar Sharma, Chief Executive Officer ("CEO") of the Company will be stepping down and will exit the Company w.e.f. April 01, 2014.Source : BSE

      Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/announcements/orient-bell-outcomeboard-meeting_1039354.html

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    2. I think the reason is non performance.

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  39. Dear VP ji,
    I would appreciate if you can review some of your previous picks not doing well at this point and give your recommendations on that so that we can average it or act accordingly. For example, Mangalam Cement, Ing. Rand, Apar Industries, HEG (just recently again it is coming up), and some others. Sir, Please think on this once which will be helpful for us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. shall try to check all old posts and updates when time permits

      Delete
  40. Sir, SakSoft's results are not that bad the way market is reacting to it...whats the reason behind it do u think?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lack of investors patience may be the reason .Everyone need only momentum ,quality is not an issue.

      Delete
  41. dear vp sir what's your take on chemfab alkalies and CYBER TECH ....
    sirji if you not tracking than please advice what to look out for ...n VP Sir please once give a detailed answer
    thank you

    ReplyDelete
  42. Your view from next 2-3 years for avanti feeds . Maintaining good growth and giving good results as well. Ur old recommendation as well. Is it right time to rethink or enter looking at future prospects

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    1. I know many people recommending this stock even at current price of Rs.335 . I have recommended it at just Rs.68 (link below) and it already turned as a multi bagger.

      http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2011/09/avanti-feeds-ltd-changing-fortunes.html

      I would always prefer to recommend a stock if its risk reward ratio is favorable.Major issue of this industry is possibility of some unexpected restrictions on import by foreign countries due to outbreak of diseases to prawn,quality related issues ..etc.This is happening now and then ,So I am not interested to recommend it at current high price though I am not saying the same will repeat again . Just a matter of caution

      Delete
  43. Sir, where to find recent conference call of wockhardt? I am not able to find it on google.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most probably it will updated in company website in few days. If interested Why you didn't try to hear/participate in it.?

      Delete
  44. fourth time request for your view on genesys

    ReplyDelete
  45. Sir, how do you analyse the results of Sequent - looks like long term bet?
    Revenues are good but losses have increased,though. M confused lil bit with results. Pls help as I'm long term investor in it.
    Thanks Agian,
    Rita

    ReplyDelete
  46. Increase in loss mainly due to an exceptional expenditure of more than 11 Cr. Hold the stock ,ignore the results for few more quarters

    ReplyDelete
  47. VP Sir, Nath Biogene is falling everyday.Is it still good to enter at 88-90 level or wait for more correction to come?Please advice me. Thanks a lot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you think a stock will move from Rs.1 to 1000 in single direction ? .It already moved from Rs.50 to Rs.100 circuit to circuit .

      Delete
  48. VP sir, what is your view on basant agrotech..it is in the same segment and promoters are increasing tjeir holding in every quarter.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Dear Valuepick,

    I held shares in Nath Seeds, 10 years ago as a result of which I have got shares in the the other 2 companies u mentioned.
    However, continuing with the poor governance standards, nowhere have they published the proportion to calculate the cost of acquisition of all the 3 companies post the demerger. For e.g., if I had bought 100 shares of Nath Seeds prior to the demerger, what should I consider as the cost of acquisition in all the 3 companies, for the purpose of calculating the Capital Gains?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Clearly it seems as an effort to highlight its corporate governance is poor ( My stand already mentioned above in this subject) .Otherwise ,if you are holding the stock before de-merger and received the new shares of three de-merged companies why you need other sources to know the de-merger ratio.?

      Delete
    2. Dear VP, Are you still tracking this Stock "Nath Bio Genes"??? Whats your current advise upon this stock???

      Delete

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