Saturday, July 27, 2013

GUESS THIS STOCK - 3






Thanks for your overwhelming response to previous questions in this series.This is the third one .Don't take it as a competition,just an effort to  stimulate your stock research skills in this boring market.Try to find out the name of company from the below indications and send it to valuepick@rediffmail.com.Please don't post the same as comment.Name of readers sending the correct answer and name of the company will be posted on next Saturday.



1) This company manufacturing few niche products having great potential in future 

 2) Company obtained more than 25 patents for their products across the globe

3) For one of its main product ,company is the only producer in India and one of the three producers in the entire world. 

4) Currently ,consumption of its main product is in nascent stage in India .This company  is in existence for the past 20 years .Its top line crossed  double digit mark( in crores)  in last financial year after a gap of 5 years.

5) In FY 2012-13 ,company reported more than 250 % increase in its turnover and turned to profit after reported losses in previous consecutive 5 years.

6) In latest June quarter ,company reported more than 350 % rise in turnover and 400% jump in net profit, compared with same period of last year.

7) Promoter holding is very high in this company and If promoters raise their stake  by another 1 % it will violate the minimum public share holding norms issued by SEBI

8) Total share holders of this company is less than 2000

9) Company is liberal in dividend policy and distributed dividend in every year if there is any profit in corresponding year. 

10) At current market price,stock is trading with a dividend yield of  7.5 % 

11 ) @ Friday's closing price stock is trading @ 1/10 th of its life time high and  20 % below its yearly high.

90 comments :

  1. Seems like Suzlon

    Regards
    Rahul

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sir,
    Is is Akzo Nobel.

    ReplyDelete
  3. @Valuepick .. Yes he is joking for sure :D

    ReplyDelete
  4. is it Lamar remidies.

    ReplyDelete
  5. is it Assam com.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Is it from Energy sector?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Sir pls open surprise i cant guess this wonderful company

    ReplyDelete
  8. onmobile global

    ReplyDelete
  9. sir company name is suven life science

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sad to see , our retail investors are making only this much due-diligence before investing in a company.!!! .Investors who suggested the above names not even verified how much is the turnover of the company they suggested.As point no 4 ,I clearly mentioned after a gap of 5 years it crossed double digit turnover ( in crores) only in last FY .

    ReplyDelete
  11. the criteria provided by is not at all sufficient. i could not find any stock with yield of exact 7.5%, I also could not find any scrip whose turnover and Net profit increased by 350% and 400% exactly. can you give some reasonable criteria which will be enable us to find the stock

    Regards
    DUVVURI RAMA MOHANA RAO

    ReplyDelete
  12. Not exact ,all are above the mentioned percentage .It is clearly indicated as "more than" .In case of yield it is also slightly above 7.5%

    ReplyDelete
  13. it is lika va bug technologies

    ReplyDelete
  14. vinyl chemicals?

    ReplyDelete
  15. I sent my answer to your mail.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Kishan.

    ReplyDelete
  16. its shakti pump.or sabero org..
    Prashant

    ReplyDelete
  17. i think it is avanthi feeds more than 20 years in the business,recently double growth profit.

    ramesh arjun.

    ReplyDelete
  18. india gelatine for sure value pick ji

    ReplyDelete
  19. is sounds a fantastic company! if u can please tell the name today, i can buy it on monday itself! ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  20. Dear prashant/anonymous,

    In avanti feeds/sabero organics/shakti pumps/india gelatine in all answers either the share holding percentage is much less than 74%(see point no 7), or the dividend is not 7.5% or more, so all the answers are got to be wrong. I once again thank vp sir for creating interest among ourselves.thanks sir.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Satish

      Mentioned as dividend yield,not dividend.

      Delete
  21. Dear Anonymous,

    Share holding percentage of lyka lab is only 23% with promoters, so it is not the right answer, kindly see point no:1&2-it is going to be in offbeat industry..

    sathishkumar

    ReplyDelete
  22. Dear sir,

    Kindly give your indepth comments about the Q1 results of Marksans pharma & Granules india-& your disclaimer whether it is a buy or sell at current cmp...

    Thanks a lot sir.

    sathish kumar.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe many investors are confused about the Notes no 2 attached with the result of Granues and even suspect whether such a treatment of exchange difference of loan is permitted or not.But in reality nothing against the low .Refer the below link for more clarity.


      http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-01-02/news/30587579_1_accounting-standards-foreign-currency-forex-losses


      In addition to this ,company's forex loans are long term in nature.I believe by that time company's financial health will be much better than current and they can handle it without much stress .Granules is a BUy for me below Rs.140/-

      In case of mraksans ,hold it now and before adding more wait for their debt re payment method

      Delete
  23. sir,

    I need your precious comments about Va Tech Wabag & Mangalam cement, it is going down & down, though it has eroded our 50%, shall we book loss.....please reply sir.. or shall we accumulate...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still I believe sharp fall is not due to any company specific negative but the overall slackness in demand in the concerned industries.So ,take a decision based on your holding period.

      Delete
  24. Just based on 5 & 10 from the screener you can find out the company name. Mafatlal Industries Ltd.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock should satisfy all conditions not a few.

      Delete
  25. Sir,

    is the dividend yield calculated based on the dividend paid in calender year 2012, or is it based on dividend of calender year 2013?

    also, is the stock currently on ex-dividend or cum-dividend?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Dear Value
    Is there a company actually in existence meeting these criteria ???

    ReplyDelete

  27. Dear Value pick sir,
    just one more question, is this into gems & jewelry space?

    Also, whats your take on CUmmins now @413? I have 100 at 444...I can buy another 50 max. Please provide your kind insights??

    Regards
    Aditya

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think there is much relevance for patents in an industry like Gems and Jewellery

      Delete
  28. Dear sir,

    If this stock is held between 2000 investors, then surely it would have been or in future it will be included in PCA, so i would love to hear your interest in your share, just tell your disclaimer about this share(not the name): Whether it is a buy for high risk takers, or multibagger, or for long term investors only etc, kindly please quote sir...

    kumar.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only two possibilities regarding PCA ?.

      My interest in this stock is only because of the potential of its product and company's R&D capabilities .

      Delete
  29. To all

    Yes there is such a company actually existing meeting this criteria,you need to focus on all the points.

    ReplyDelete
  30. is it chemfab alkalies?

    ReplyDelete
  31. What is your current opinion on novartis. Is there any fundamental change ?

    Sumit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Sumit

      MNC Pharma cos may face some tough times in near future due to patent related issues in India.

      Delete
  32. Dear VP Sir
    Whats happening with BASF INdia? Despite given the excellent results and good future prospect (such as setting up of Metal plant in the Mangalore plant & leasing the land for agricultral research ) why its going down drastically? or Is it effect of the cessation of blending plant of automotive coatings division?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is not a reason ,we should expect this and more in these kind market mood.

      Delete
  33. In the last couple of sessions we are seeing a lot of midcaps which were holding on are suddenly collapsing with no major announcement or news in the stock. Tough times for investors.
    Some of the stocks are as below

     

    Havells down 15%

     

    tv 18 down 8% and is now down to 17 rs

     

    NBCC is down 8% to 112 ———— ( Will need to rework on this at sub 100 levels will be interesting )

     

    Triveni Turbine down 5% to 51   ( this can be interesting at 40-45 bucks )

     

    Orient Cements down to 35 bucks ( This seems interesting )

     

    Geometric Software is down 20% after results

     

    Vakrangee Software — A risky company with LIC Stake mentioned yesterday is down on another 20% lower circuit

     

    Vivimed Labs is down 10% and falling from 250 to 110 on lower circuits.

     

    Plethico Pharma down on lower circuits

     

    Innoventive Inds where IDFC mutual Fund bought a stake at 130 bucks is on lower circuit at 40.

     

    BGR Energy is down to 80 after founder expired. Last OFS was at 118

     

    Nilkamal Plastics is down 8% at 110 ……………. ( this is a stock i have recommended at 190-220 levels and facing a big hit)

     

    Hanung Toys  – Another manipulated counter with debts at 10 times market cap as of today continues on lower circuit.

     

    Navneet Publications down 5-7% with no reason

     

    LIC Housing , BPCL, HPCL

     

    Venus Remedies, TV Today , Sequent Specific, Lovable Lingerie and many others which are down 4-10% whereas the Nifty is down only a 1.2%

     

    These are difficult times for investors. Some of the reasons could be .

     

    -> Quite a lot of Managements are not trustworthy.

     

    -> If the management is trustworthy the macro scenario is changing very fast.

     

    -> The size of the companies are small and institutional investors have become totally anti-midcaps with the previous instances of bad managements.

     

    -> There is absolutely No interest from retail and HNI so even if there is a company available at great value there will be a long gestation period till the macro changes and demand comes back.

     

    -> Prices are a function of demand and supply. Current actions like PCAS and low liquidity otherwise also is a deterrent for any buyer and the demand is totally gone.

     

    -> Majority of Indian companies are not keen to give big dividends which can reduce downsides. ( For example like NESCO but the company needs money so no dividends and so no re-rating of the stock )

     

    -> At current levels many midcaps are terribly underprices but with no demand stock prices can continue to slide lower. Investors with a 1-3-5 years view will be rewarded but if you are looking at next 3 months be careful.

     

    Some of the stocks which i liked and hold Smartlink has dropped from 548-55 levels to 43 today with low volumes. Available at 1/3rd the cash on books. Nucleus Software has added 100 crores to the cash in balance sheet in 2 years but stock at same price. The stock looks interesting at 60-70 bucks if one has a long term view

    ReplyDelete
  34. Interesting game! Looking forward to the answer.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Sir marksans , book value has improved to 3.33 after june q1 results. Am I right?

    ReplyDelete
  36. Sir, giving up...tried, but have not been able to find....your research is just awesome...

    ReplyDelete
  37. Sir,
    I thought of Sun Pharma Adv Research as the company is turning around now after long years of losses. But you mentioned about June qtr result on weekend and the company results came out today so it can't be this company otherwise many paramaters like profit, High promoter holding etc are matching :)
    This is creating lot of anxiety and curiosity among us to know the company name.. it will be interesting :)

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  38. It looks like IVRCL or Unitech

    ReplyDelete
  39. No value, No.....
    No such company.....

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hi VPji,

    My question is regarding Sequent and Strides Acrolab.

    Strides through the process of selling major part to Mylan and is going to receive 1.6 b $, if everything works fine.

    And as per the announcement by the promoters, they may give 50% as dividends. So this works out to be 800 Cr for promoters roughly.

    Is all these are for concentrating in Sequent Business ? They already displayed the trend of reducing strides holding and increasing it in Sequent.

    Finally, all these indicates a possibility of they selling Sequent too at a distant future?!!

    Your valuable comment will be highly appreciated.

    Rgds
    Zain

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Daer Zain
      If history is any indication ,Promoters of this group knows very well how to create wealth.So chances are many .We should not forget that Strides took 9 years to reach from Rs.120 to Rs.1200.

      Delete


  41. if you could spare few minutes from your precious life and kindly shed some light on marksans pharma , it would mean the world to me ... bought good amount of shares after your recommendation .... it is in profit for last 4 quarters. (including the one in june) ...

    otri important ane anikye ... thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More than once commented about this stock post result.If you are not interested to hold it for long term and not ready to take risk ,may exit even now with more than 100% return within this 4 months period.Any change in opinion is based only on the method of fund raising for repayment of FCCB.

      Delete
  42. Dear sir,

    your views on Tata Global Beverages.... at current cmp & Bafna pharma...

    ReplyDelete
  43. Sir, Your view on BGR Energy
    Its close to 5 Year low

    Thanks
    Arun

    ReplyDelete
  44. Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd?

    ReplyDelete
  45. Hi Valuepick,

    Onmobile is at all time low and trading around 21 Rs.. do you see value buying in it? results are good yoy but OK QoQ.. debt wise it looks fine.. do you recommend going for it now or wait for next few quarters?

    Best Regards,
    Nitin

    ReplyDelete
  46. Value pick sir,
    Whats your take on cummins now?
    I do plan to hold it for 4-5 years

    Can buy more at CMP? is it worth it?

    ReplyDelete
  47. Dear Sir, I would like to buy sequent at current levels . Is it advisable ? I hope there is no change in fundamentals. ?

    ReplyDelete
  48. Sir,

    Ur View on DHFL and Sanghvi Movers please..

    Rgds,Harsha

    ReplyDelete
  49. It's a KSB Pumps Ltd....

    ReplyDelete
  50. guss stock 3 answer is chemfab alkalies

    ReplyDelete
  51. Sir... as per mr. luke vargheese article shows chemfab alkalies not run by professtionally and miss managed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. chemfab wont fit in this criteria - sales crossed double digit on this year after 5 yrs.

      Delete
  52. Dear Sir,
    What is the future of MMTC? Going tooooo low?

    ReplyDelete
  53. any view on poly medicure ..just last month gave bonus

    ReplyDelete
  54. Folks do your own homework and make contribution to the blog, instead of asking VALUEPICK's opnion on evrything under the sun.

    ReplyDelete

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