Saturday, February 16, 2013

ANIL LTD - BUY





We have already discussed another stock from this same sector – Sukhjit Starch-around Rs.169 ( Old posting HERE) which reached a high of Rs.275 and currently trading around Rs.215.As in the case of Sukhjit ,ANIL LTD is a large listed player in starch and starch derivatives industry. This company belongs to Ahmedabad based ANIL group having diverse interest in Biotechnology,Food Processing ..etc.Company  manufacturing Native Starch, Chemical Starch, Modified Starches, Dextrins, Dextrose Monohydrate, Liquid Glucose, Corn Syrup, and Sorbitol ..etc. These products are mainly used in Textile,Pharmaceutical, Paper and Food & Beverages industries. ANIL exporting many of its value added products to various overseas markets.Recently company established an SPV to set up a mega food park in Vadodara ,Gujarat.Growth of user industries and price flactuation of raw material is points to note.For the past few months raw material price was high due to lower mansoon in last season.But company could report satisfactory performance with higher top line even its margin impacted due to this factor.Company reported a turnover of Rs.226 Cr v/s Rs.158 cr in December quarter alone .Net profit was flat around Rs.13-14 Cr .For the last financial year company reported a  turnover of Rs.645 Cr ,net profit of Rs.50 Cr and an EPS of Rs.52 /- .At current market price of Rs.199 , Anil is trading at a P/E multiple of just 4 which is at the lower end for a dominent player in this industry.A better mansoon in India for the next season  or an improved out look of corn production in international market  will help the company to reduce its raw material cost.At current market price I feel there is value in it.Recommending an entry for long term investors @ CMP RS.199 and any dip due to over all sell off in mid caps (if any) may take as a chance to add more .


Link to Company website HERE

63 comments :

  1. Thanks VP for the reco. I have been keenly watching this sector.. There is every possibility for re rating.. Lets hope for the best!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Sir,
    Excellent pick.
    What is ur view about Poddar pigments ?

    SK

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear VP.
    Whats wrong with Mangalam cement its continuously going down. Is there any thing wrong with the company or over all sector is not good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing specifically wrong to the company

      Delete
  4. whats your opinion on elder healthcare and himalaya international ? is there any change your old views on elder healthcare

    ReplyDelete
  5. What is ur latest analyses.of.orient bell ceramics after dec 12 qtr results . U had covered this script earlier in Nov 12

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dear Sir,
    Your Thoughts on Vulcan Engineers

    Regards,
    Soni

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In response to a comment post third quarter result of Vulcan I have already mentioned this stock is only for investors having patience at least for 3 + years.

      Delete
    2. Sir you view on Fortis health care and Seamac for long term

      Thanks

      Delete
  7. Dear Sir !
    your values on Vibrant Digital please.

    Regards
    Balu.

    ReplyDelete
  8. vp sir how is gabriel india ?

    ReplyDelete
  9. sir your view on GLENMARK pharma most of the stock in pramoters,fii,and dii s only around 90% and i heard company research work is going on well and they are going to release a hiv induced anti diarroheal drug in around 140 countries (as a clinical pharmacist i am seeing this HIV induced diarrohea is most common) do you think sales will improve and what do you feel about future prospects of the company
    waiting for your reply please tell me about your view
    thank u
    p@w@n

    ReplyDelete
  10. VP Sir,
    Can you give your comment on CEBBCO,if you track it.
    It has fallen down more than 50% in last 10/12 days without any solid reason which is open(not secret).

    ReplyDelete
  11. Sir,
    Do you think as small investor, I should look for Granules India at 105 instead buying ANIL at 199?

    I know it may not be a great alternative but being a tight constraint on money, I was looking at price wise also.

    Thanks you sir.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Sir

    Should I sell Panama Petrochem ltd during buyback or hold it???

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi VPji,

    First, I do not mean any offense and a follower & fan of your blog. I hope this comment will get published.

    Don't you think you are compromising on quality for quantity in a bid to give a tip every saturday? I know you dont meant any ill for investors but it is giving opportunity to few to question your intent which does not matter but still.

    Especially recommending a stock every saturday that too small & mid-cap in a market which has ran up a lot is a risky play.

    Clear case was Aarvee Denim on which I posted few of my concerns but it did not get published. There was few other stocks which has recommended I feel just because you did not find anything better to recommend on Saturday. Since it was quiet clear that even if you are convinced about the stock and concept, we would get a better opportunity to enter than what was the current price.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seriously considering to reduce the number of posts .Due to the over all negative growth in economy it is difficult to find something worthwhile.Majority of investors not bothered about what is happening around and still expecting money should double in few weeks.

      Delete
  14. Hello Sir

    I am not able to see 'search' tab which I used to see earlier. There is only one search on the top left which just searches the main article. I am not able to find all content (specifically your comments) related to that search word. So, how shall I go about checking if you already commented recently about any particular company and hence, I wont repeat the questions. Please advise on searching content and let me kow if I am missing on something:) Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I too fed up on this matter.Due to some technical issues search option is not working properly for the past many days ,hence I temporarily removed it.Send many mails to blogger team but no help so far..

      Delete
  15. Dear Sir
    your valuable input required....... As I have planned to enter tomorrow in KCP sugar but bseindia website its mentioned that "Suspended due to Procedural reasons" on this scrip in red...
    Anything related to fraud about the management?????

    Looking forward to hearing from you.

    Nithi

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think the management of KCP group is fraud .This stock is still trading with trade code 533192

      Delete
  16. Sir,the service you do for the retail investors is really laudable,was looking for such a blog for a very long time and found yours few days back.

    Thanks alot.keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Replies
    1. Not expecting any out performance in near future.

      Delete
  18. Sir, my humble submission about your comment on reducing the number of posts.

    If we see earnings announcements vs. stock price, there is mis-match. Despite rise in earnings, stock prices have come down. As they say, "buy low and sell high". This is the time, when position can be taken in "clean" companies. You are doing a great service to small investors, who otherwise don't have access to "trustworthy" source of research.

    Please keep continue with your post at the current frequency.

    Thank-you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear friend

      But what we can do if people still expecting money overnight whatever be the position of ecomony and not willing to wait with patience till there is signs of revival. ?. Sometimes I fees many people considering it is only my duty to make money for them and they have no responsibilities about their own money and no time to spend for studying the company we are discussing.!!

      Delete
    2. VP ji, you can neglect such kind of people who are real crooks.They never know that a stock market investment is subject to various business risks and they they always want to see their portfolio in green.I support you in reducing the number of posts but keep up ur good work.

      Delete
    3. Dear sir,
      there are some frustrated pepole who always disturb others who are doing constructive work and plz ignore them i really appreciate and like ur comments
      Rahul.

      Delete
  19. Dear VP

    I have been following your blog for few months now and today seeing the comment from gammyind and your reply to him, I am compelled to write here.

    You are doing an yeoman's service and people like gammyind will always be there to see things negatively. You should not deter yourself from the work you are doing. It's difficult to explain to these people that stock market investment is not a spoon feeding exercise and even the greatest of the investment experts do not always hit the bulls eye. It's the probability which matters and in your case many of your finds/picks have been doing really good. It's upto the readers also to do their homework and even pointout something which you might have overlooked so that collective wisdom is brought in.

    My sincere request would be to ignore such readers and continue to write the way you currently are doing. For us your picks should be the starting point and we should also do our analysis on top of that and then only decide to put our money behind it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fully support Raj's views. VP Sir, you are providing unmatched service and kindly continue the way you are doing. If possible put more stocks so that more choices are available to select from.
      Ravi

      Delete
    2. Raj: Have you read my comment? Please read again and if you dont understand read it again & again. I think what I told, even VPji somewhat agrees with it and you have a problem.

      Actually, people do not read and understand the scenario and invest. Similarly as you have done and commented on my comment. And then when the stock goes down, they come and blame the one who gave the recommendation.

      A humble request to everyone, please do read my comment before jumping the gun.

      Delete
    3. All,
      I see no problem in gammyind's message. Not sure why everyone jumped to conclusion so incorrectly?

      What he mentioned was true and even VP acknowledged it. He was just sharing his idea.

      Raj, you should read properly and apologize for creating so much furor here.

      Delete
    4. It was really offending and Gammyind should have avoided the comment "Don't you think you are compromising on quality for quantity in a bid to give a tip every saturday? I keep checking VP Sir's blog many times a day even churn out his replies on any stock, and his recommendations on Saturdays are eagerly awaited. I am sure people who follow him have any doubt about his integrity or he would ever compromise on quality. Any stock in VP Sir's radar merits serious consideration and investors will be happy to see more number of stocks if VP Sir can post whenever he spots one.
      Ravi

      Delete
    5. gammyind, when you say that "Please read again and if you dont understand read it again & again." this shows that you don't want to focus on the content of your message which is questioned but want to hit below the belt. Do not assume that people are dumb out here and need to read your simple message again and again to decipher something positive from an outrightly negative message.

      Ok gammyind, I will be objective on my comment to you and expect the same from you without being personal.

      Your points

      i) "Don't you think you are compromising on quality for quantity in a bid to give a tip every saturday?"

      The statistics is that around 5500+ companies are listed on BSE+NSE, if I take your words on facevalue and assume Mr VP gives 1 investment advice (which you in your misplaced judgement call a Tip), the number comes to 52 companies in a year, not even 1% of the total listed companies. Do you think that quality of the companies in indian stock market is so pathetic that you can't be sure of even 1% of good quality stocks year on year...Had that been the case, there is no reason whatsoever to be investing in Indian stock market becuase the probablity of losing money would be very very high. In my opinion and experience there would be atleast 20% of stocks which are decent bet at any time(giving returns more than the FD) and with India growing it's going to get better. So I would say that about 1000 companies would be worth putting money in any point in time which would give above FD returns..For an informed investor, it won't be a tall order to spot such above average yielding stocks from that bunch of 1000 good companies but you need a special eye and knack as Mr VP is blessed with to spot multibaggers from these.

      So in my opinion, statistics prove you wrong here.. then what else could you mean... Do you mean that Mr VP doesn't have the capability to find those quality stocks from a heap of 5500+ available. ? If you think so, then I disagree with you very very strongly. there are very few people who have a knack of spotting gems in the market and he in one of them.

      ii) "Especially recommending a stock every saturday that too small & mid-cap in a market which has ran up a lot is a risky play."

      Even the market is near its all time high, but small and mid cap by and large has not participated yet. there is no frenzy and retail participation is all time low. historically this is the time to invest in mid caps than to call it a risky play.

      iii) "I know you dont meant any ill for investors but it is giving opportunity to few to question your intent which does not matter but still."

      You are completely wrong here.. VP is providing a voluntary service to those who come to his blog to read his articles. He is no way responsible for any financial repercussions of the actions that readers do. Every one of us are expected to do our home work and decide to invest or give it a skip based on our own, on the top analysis. You should question those few people who complain and not try to restrain Mr VP, as it's their money and they are solely responsible for their action. As I said before, even the likes of buffet or RJ have not been 100% right all the time but if you invest in 5 potential bultibagger stocks and even 2 perform the way you expect it to be, you achieve your objective.


      lastly, VP in his post not always suggest a new stock.. He also posts result analysis and repeat recommendations/sell calls etc which are realy needed when you have invested in some of his recommended stocks. Do not paint everything with the same brush and pls let him decide the quality/frequency/quantity of the posts rather than you trying to restrain or control his posts for whatever reasons.

      Delete
    6. Hello Amit,

      If you don't see any problem in gammyind's message that doesn't mean that everyone sees it that way. you may be one more individual who think alike to him, but please don't make out that if you don't see a problem in his message, no one else sees it as well. respect divergent views !!

      What VP acknowedged is in a huff because gammyind says that people complain if the stock doesnt perform well. gammyind should write to those people instead of VP.. See if you point fingers to person who is doing a voluntary service, he will surely respond in a huff.

      And does "read properly" mean the way you want it to be read..? I fail to understand this side of the argument. If something is not in your favour, how can you question the reader's ability to read and qualify that with words like 'properly' ....huh !!

      Now I hope, you would apologize.

      Delete
  20. Dear VPJI,

    Pl let me know about granules india as it is going down (lost almost 50%) Pl advise should i hold or make a loss or should i average it at these levels.

    Regards,
    PGB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Post result ,at least 5 times I posted my view on this stock.

      Delete
    2. C krishna Prasad released another 1.6 lakh shares from pledge i guess this is enough to say that the fundamentals and the confidence is still intact.

      Delete
    3. Could any one explain me in simple term --What is meant by release of pledged share? Because i am totally confused with the following two examples

      HDIL -Sarang Wadhawan 1.19% stake released from pledge - the share value beaten down a lot.
      where as Granules India case - Krishna prasad - released 1.6lac share from pledge but the share shot up.


      Delete
    4. I think ,answer for this Q is easily available by googling.

      Delete
  21. Dear Sir,
    Thank you for all your inputs.Sir, in the recently out qtrly result of aries agro they have made a huge provision [430.83 lacs]for deferred tax.Can u tell us what can we share holders make out of this.The stock hit its 52 week low.Is this a right time to add some more?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Frankly speaking ,really fed up with this stock and discontinue tracking it

      Delete
  22. sir, since last 2 yr i have invested in eastern gases.. but last 2 or 3 days when i check the bse trading terminal this stock not seen. the last day trading of this stock on february 14, sir, anything wrong with this company ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing has happened .No trading is due to no compromise for price by buyer and seller.:)

      Delete
  23. Dear VP
    Its really useful, if you could discuss few things related to budget in upcoming week... So that it helps to improve our understanding.

    Nithi

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No big expectation from budget ,for me.

      Delete
  24. gammyind, when you say that "Please read again and if you dont understand read it again & again." this shows that you don't want to focus on the content of your message which is questioned but want to hit below the belt. Do not assume that people are dumb out here and need to read your simple message again and again to decipher something positive from an outrightly negative message.

    Ok gammyind, I will be objective on my comment to you and expect the same from you without being personal.

    Your points

    i) "Don't you think you are compromising on quality for quantity in a bid to give a tip every saturday?"

    The statistics is that around 5500+ companies are listed on BSE+NSE, if I take your words on facevalue and assume Mr VP gives 1 investment advice (which you in your misplaced judgement call a Tip), the number comes to 52 companies in a year, not even 1% of the total listed companies. Do you think that quality of the companies in indian stock market is so pathetic that you can't be sure of even 1% of good quality stocks year on year...Had that been the case, there is no reason whatsoever to be investing in Indian stock market becuase the probablity of losing money would be very very high. In my opinion and experience there would be atleast 20% of stocks which are decent bet at any time(giving returns more than the FD) and with India growing it's going to get better. So I would say that about 1000 companies would be worth putting money in any point in time which would give above FD returns..For an informed investor, it won't be a tall order to spot such above average yielding stocks from that bunch of 1000 good companies but you need a special eye and knack as Mr VP is blessed with to spot multibaggers from these.

    So in my opinion, statistics prove you wrong here.. then what else could you mean... Do you mean that Mr VP doesn't have the capability to find those quality stocks from a heap of 5500+ available. ? If you think so, then I disagree with you very very strongly. there are very few people who have a knack of spotting gems in the market and he in one of them.

    ii) "Especially recommending a stock every saturday that too small & mid-cap in a market which has ran up a lot is a risky play."

    Even the market is near its all time high, but small and mid cap by and large has not participated yet. there is no frenzy and retail participation is all time low. historically this is the time to invest in mid caps than to call it a risky play.

    iii) "I know you dont meant any ill for investors but it is giving opportunity to few to question your intent which does not matter but still."

    You are completely wrong here.. VP is providing a voluntary service to those who come to his blog to read his articles. He is no way responsible for any financial repercussions of the actions that readers do. Every one of us are expected to do our home work and decide to invest or give it a skip based on our own, on the top analysis. You should question those few people who complain and not try to restrain Mr VP, as it's their money and they are solely responsible for their action. As I said before, even the likes of buffet or RJ have not been 100% right all the time but if you invest in 5 potential bultibagger stocks and even 2 perform the way you expect it to be, you achieve your objective.


    lastly, VP in his post not always suggest a new stock.. He also posts result analysis and repeat recommendations/sell calls etc which are realy needed when you have invested in some of his recommended stocks. Do not paint everything with the same brush and pls let him decide the quality/frequency/quantity of the posts rather than you trying to restrain or control his posts for whatever reasons.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VPJI,

      Please publish this comment since discussion is never bad.


      Raj,

      I would tell you to read it again. lol

      You got personal and not me with your this comment in the earlier post: " people like gammyind will always be there to see things negatively"

      without knowing me personally.

      Anyways, here is my objective comment:

      1.
      Yes. The quality of companies in indian stock market is pathetic especially with regards to coporate governence and still there is reason to invest in the indian stock market. Believe me. Why? It is for each one of us for our own to figure out.

      The statistics looks good to say....around 5500+ but how many from them still exists beyond paper and how many of them are traded. From those, how many are operator driven and how many of those will survive after few years. You will realise money need not always be made by investing in stock market.

      I strongly disagree that there will be always be 1000 companies worth putting money in any point in time which would give above FD returns. It is a very generalised statement. Do remember when market goes down, small & midcap stocks are the most thrashed ones. So, my point is:

      a. It better to avoid mid-cap/small when the market has run up so much and there is slightest of doubt in a stock. It is better to wait for a correction. Small investor are very small...believe me. Some of them cant even survive the carnage we saw in mid-cap/small cap in the last week even if they had invested initially for very long term view. Believe me, it does not feel good to see your investment becoming half in few days. Believe me, people go out of market. Even if you are in profit, it does not make sense to enter in midcap / smallcap when market is at a all time high and reduce your profit.

      So quality is more important than quantity.

      b. It is always better to hold on to your horses when the market has rallied so much. (will explain further to the answer to your next question)

      2.
      "Even the market is near its all time high, but small and mid cap by and large has not participated yet. there is no frenzy and retail participation is all time low. historically this is the time to invest in mid caps than to call it a risky play."

      Really, this statement is making me feel to go personal. But I will restrain.
      You are telling this even after seeing the carnage in midcap/smallcap last week? Remember, my comment was regards to people entering a stock when it is at his high/life time hight which was before the carnage. There was some stock which lost 80-90% value in few days. Believe me, there was some good companies.

      Timing the market is important even if it is very difficult but it is still important. It is important for a investor to ask a question: Will I get a better price to enter or not before entering a stock even if it was recommended by VPJI? Even this results in missing a few bus but still it is worth it, rather than the pain of seeing the midcap/smallcap stock in rumbles after few days of investing. Believe me, many a times, you get the same stock very cheap which is also value as in the vpji profile name.

      About retail participation, it looks good for analyst to tell on TV but not us small investors. Harshad Mehta theory of stock market can go in one direction ie upwards was not true. Believe me....it does not work that way....stock market goes down also.

      So, understanding the market is also important.

      Delete
    2. Remaining Reply:

      3.
      I nevered blamed VPji and will never because investing should be the sole dicretion of the one who is putting the money. I did not came even near blaming VPJi. Can you state one line from comment which say that because of VPJI, investor are loosing money.

      But this is stock market and VPJI can also get wrong. It was just a suggestion which I had given earlier also but it did not get published. VPJI looks wise enough that he will be open to suggestions but some of his followers dont seem to. I did not hold a gun on his head and told him to stop giving recommendation every saturday. Similarly, as he has not put a gun on the head of his followers and told that to go and invest as soon as he recommends a stock.

      If I had any doubt about his ability, I would not have been visiting his blog. But Believe me, never create god of human beings. For all of us to move forward, it is important to dicuss and sometime question also.

      I had given a suggestion which as a regular follower I have every right to and which may improve the quality of his recommendation. You took my suggestion to a different tangent.

      Delete
    3. gammyind, now that you have conceded on your original point and retracted your sentence that you are not trying to influence Mr VP unnecessarily, I see no reason to spend my time in replying to you but still some of your points warranted an answer and may be one last time, I still pen down few lines

      On your point no 1. I strongly disagree.. but no point in repeating the same words, lets agree to disagree. And precisely for this reason in a stock market you have buyers as well as sellers, thinking exactly opposite to each other.

      Point no 2. Thankfully you restrained yourself from any personal comments, else for me only sky is the limit.
      Probably your holdings saw a carnage and that makes you feel that mid caps were buthered last week, but when I talk of investment and not a tip as you call it, I invest for atleast 3 years in mind and not look for intermediate swings. If you invest in quality companies and be glued to the screen all day, you are bound to be gyrated by the daily highs and lows. For a change, try investing in stocks like you invest in the real estate wherein you dont check the land/apartment price everyday with your Agent and then you will feel the difference. Follow the business and not the stock price during the time you are invested.

      And who says to put money right there on the day when Mr VP recommends a scrip. It just brings on the radar a supposedly quality stock which should be watched closely and bought only when the price is in your range. I didnt buy Basant Agro or Anil ltd after his recommendations, but waiting for Basant to go below 4 and Anil @170 to buy those. If I miss the bus, so be it..there will be a new bus coming..but I dont jump in the moment I see his investment advice. And I think every readers should do that and I am sure many of them would be doing that way. But what you have tried was to coerce him to stop advising at the first place and I have objection to that. Anyways now you have retracted your words, so I won't harp much on that anymore.

      And why you waste your words in repeating the same things which I have said already by writing "But this is stock market and VPJI can also get wrong". I have said that in my first post itself and forget VP, even the likes of Buffet and RJ's go wrong many times, market is much bigger than individuals, so no one can be an infallible god here...so no question about that... but what we are looking for is in Mr VP's abilities/knack to spot a gem from the heap and I object to your insistence of stopping that process. As a reader You and we all have a right to discuss and critically analyse the facts presented by him or on his opinion about any stocks but in no way you should say that "You are compromising on quality of your recommendations" ..If you have doubt on the quality of any particular stock, discuss that..put forward your points and let us all see what makes you say so... but don't coerce him to reduce the post or frequency of it. You should have atleast this much trust in him that he will not suggest something merely because he has to do it once a week... And you need not to put a gun always on the head to force someone, for good and decent people unkind words make more impact that the sword.

      Delete
  25. Dear Friends

    Let us leave this subject here :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sir, today granules india has appointed additional director Mr K.B Sankara rao. I guess he was executive vice president of Dr Reddy's Lab. please share your view i guess this is another confidence booster.

      Delete
    2. Yes, he is the same person from Dr Reddy's lab

      Delete
  26. Granules India is seeing some value buying. It is better to stay invested or add more as it is below 150.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Already expressed my view on this stock post result,no change in it.

      Delete
  27. VP bhai,

    Answer only if you think my question is right at this time.
    Ion exchage is hanging aroung 120-10 levels from a longtime. Despite positive results and future growth plans. The stock is not performing. Do you know anything which we don't know.
    Sorry if my question is not valid at this point of time as your thinking is mostly long term.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Over all market mood is also a factor influencing prices.But if company keep growing investors will once identify it and it will be rewarded in long term.

      Delete
  28. Dear friends
    Don't post here anything else except stock analysis. No body is here to buy stocks just by VP recommendation. Every body has there own analysis. If you like the recommendation buy it if not search for another gem and post it thats all.

    VP sir, Never force you to buy or sell. He just giving his analysis on his own blog. So just follow the blog read the post decide your self. if not never open this site.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi,

    I have a query regarding Anil Ltd. Dont you think the debt is increasing consistently in this company?

    Thanks for all your articles. I regularly read them

    ReplyDelete
  30. what a fall in this stock.....ny reason sir

    ReplyDelete
  31. Sir are u still in a view to suggest a buy call on Anil Ltd at 95

    ReplyDelete

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