Tuesday, February 21, 2012
After a long period of underperformance ,our market outperformed in the last two months mainly because of overseas fund flow. We all know based on the current fundamentals many stocks are over priced , but it is also a fact that - movement of Stock market is always based on expectation and not on reality. A major reason for the robust fund flow may be due to the reduction in inflation and a possible rate cut .But is a rate cut possible in near term ?. If the recent price trend of many industrial commodities is any indication ,a decision may not be very easy. I really afraid , will RBI get at least one chance to reduce interest rates. Price of items like Cement,Steel..etc are showing signs of upward movement again and I feel many other items will follow this trend after the state elections are over. A really worrying factor is that the government is not planning or taking any steps to control inflation on a long term basis and they are solely depending on adjusting interest rates to control inflation. In our country , at a time of bumper crops we are wasting wheat in one part and the same time people buying the same item at a price of more than Rs.20/ Kg at the other end of the country .No sincere efforts to debottlenecking the storage and transportation facilities , no efforts to increase productivity,no tax reforms ..etc. All these issues are came to light only at the time of high inflation and everyone forgetting these issues when there is small dip in it.I don't think ,only vote bank based schemes will save our country for a long time. Suppose there is a recovery in western economies earlier than we anticipated there is every chance for a spike in fuel prices again. Stock prices of many companies from interest rate sensitive sectors move even more than 100 % in past two month on expectation of a rate cut going forward. But I believe it is prudent to book at least partial profits in such stocks and shift the amount to agricultural commodity related stocks which will always perform better in an inflationary situation.