Sunday, October 31, 2010

ROTO PUMPS - REPEAT

Earlier Recommended as a BUY @ Rs.80 and BOOK PROFIT above  Rs.125/-

Reiterating BUY @ CMP of Rs.99/-
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Roto Pumps started its operations in 1968 as a
producer of progressive cavity pumps , whose
demand met by import till then.
Company  also producing Twin Screw pumps and
Centrifugal pumps in its two most modern facilities
located at Noida.Roto distributing its products
around the globe and it has marketing offices in
Australia and UK. Company also having
strong marketing network in India.Progressive
cavity pumps are used to pump liquids with high
solid content and flow needs to be controlled .These
type of pumps are generally used in industries like
Beverages,Pharma,Food processing,dairy,Effluent and
sewage treatment and mining etc..Other type of
pumps made by the company are used in sectors
like irrigation,agriculture..etc. Half of its sales
coming from export and this itself is a testimony
for the quality of Roto’s products.Roto is going
through a capacity expansion programme and the
benefits of it will reflect in the near future.
Now company’s customers are posting good business
which will help the company too.This is one of the
cheaply valued listed player in this sector compared
with KSB Pumps,WPIL,Kirloskar Brothers,Sakthi Pumps
..etc . Roto has  a tiny equity base of 3 crore where
promoters are holding almost 70%.Last year company
posted a turnover of Rs.52 crore and a net profit
of Rs.3.3 crore and an EPS of RS.10.7 .On a continuous
basis ,for the past four years company increasing
its sales and net profit.For the Six month ended
September 2010 ,Roto posted an EPS of Rs.8.80/- 
A good Buy for long term at CMP below Rs.100/-
Raw material price is a major factor to watch.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

WALL STREET JOURNAL ON ARIES AGRO

Aries agro is one of my earlier recommendation @ Rs.108/- .After touching a high of Rs.203/- ,now it is quoting around Rs.159/- .In the latest September qtr ,company posted healthy growth in top and bottom line.The good monsoon we got in this season is also expected to boost company's prospects.Long term investors can still BUY it at current rate . In my previous report ,I have mentioned the efforts taken by the company to introduce their products to farmers from remote rural areas by using Krishi Vigyan Vahan (KVV).Below is a small write up published by WALL STREET JOURNAL about this initiative:



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Fertilizers on Wheels





It's a few hours before sundown when a white and lime green truck rolls into Vanukuru village, located in the south eastern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The squeaky clean vehicle, equipped with a flat screen television and a loud speaker, stands out among old, grimy shops at the town center where it's parked. The truck, named "Krishi Vigyan Vahan," which means farmer's knowledge carrier, soon draws a crowd of about 40 farmers who have just returned from the fields. Before long, a shaded booth displaying a colorful array of fertilizer products is set up. Then, a video starring local film stars promoting fertilizers is screened on the television and blasted through the loud speaker.

As the crowd begins to grow, a marketing agent from a fertilizer company starts talking about the importance of zinc, iron, boron and other micronutrients to plant growth, plugging his products in the process. He is flanked by two other company representatives, a loyal customer and a village sarpanch – elected head of the village – who lends his legitimacy to the promotional event.
This scene has been replicated in more than 2,600 villages and satellite towns across India. It is part of a marketing strategy by the Mumbai-based fertilizer company Aries Agro Ltd. to tap into new markets which are the remote rural areas that do not have fertilizer retail stores and where there are improved irrigation systems.
Since its launch in June, Aries Agro, which focuses on micronutrients but also produces secondary nutrients and packaged water-soluble primary fertilizers, has rolled out more than 70 such trucks across the country. The trucks are tracked via satellite and the data -- net weight, distance covered, time spent at each stop – is compiled daily at the Mumbai headquarters.
"By actually going on the mobile format, which is basically my rural retail vehicles, I'm covering six to seven villages a day. So my cost is getting spread over six or seven villages, rather than an entire investment on physical infrastructure in one village," says Rahul Mirchandani, executive director of Aries Agro. The company has so far invested 48.80 million rupees ($1.05 million) into the vehicles and has forked out another 34,000 rupees towards operational costs per vehicle each month.
Aries Agro, a medium-sized fertilizer company, has a production capacity of 84,000 tons of micronutrients and 60,000 tons of secondary nutrients and water-soluble primary fertilizers per year. Last year, the company made a net profit of 57.12 million rupees.
Primary fertilizers consist of nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium that are needed in large quantities for plant growth, while secondary nutrients such as calcium, magnesium and sulphur and micronutrients such as zinc, boron, iron and manganese are used in smaller quantities.
India is one of the largest producers of primary fertilizers in the world –second largest producer of nitrogen after China and third largest producer of phosphate after China and the U.S., according to the Fertiliser Association of India or FAI. From 2008 to 2009, the country produced 33 million tons of primary fertilizer products. The estimated total consumption of primary fertilizer products in the country increased from 45.96 million tons in 2007-2008 to 50.8 million tons in the last fiscal year. There is more demand than domestic supply of primary fertilizers.
As for micronutrients, the annual production of zinc sulphate alone was about 88,000 tons in 2008-2009, according to FAI.

"I used to travel (to the fields) during the agricultural season and I see the demand (for micronutrients) is increasing," says Kanak M. Sarkar, president of the Indian Micro Fertilizers Manufacturers Association, adding the increase in demand stems from years of product demonstrations by fertilizer companies.
According to Mr. Sarkar, in the recent years, large primary fertilizer companies have noticed this and are also entering the market, competing with 400 to 450 smaller micronutrient companies in the country.
"We have to fight this problem. I cannot foresee what will happen in the future. (But) we cannot just leave this field open for them," says Mr. Sarkar.
But for Mr. Mirchandani from Aries, larger companies entering the micronutrient production business would only expand the market and create more demand. Smaller companies, he says, would however, have to provide value-added bonuses to their products in order to compete. For Aries, it's letting farmers book for products off the truck and providing accident and health insurance coverage for purchases -- a 50,000 rupees coverage for a purchase worth 1,000 rupees.
"It's useful to buy (from the truck), because we are getting a receipt, insurance coverage and the product for 1,000 rupees. It's worth it," says Nellore Chandramouli, a 52-year-old farmer in Vinjanampadu village in Andhra Pradesh.
But the vehicles are still a substantial investment -- more than eight times the cost of outsourcing promotional programs through an external company. Aries spent about a million dollars on the trucks this year and $122,508 while outsourcing promotions last year. Company executives say promotions when outsourced, were smaller in scale and had less reach to remote rural areas.
Coromandel Fertilisers Ltd., one of the big players in fertilizer production in India, spent about 500 million rupees in setting up 412 retail outlets in Andhra Pradesh, selling fertilizers, pesticides, veterinary products and household items. The venture has since brought home 2 billion rupees in revenue in the last fiscal year. Company representatives say they expect the retail stores to break even in 2010.
"The breadth of Andhra Pradesh is being covered by these centers now. We're moving now into Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka in the years to come. So the idea is to get direct retailing to the farmer," says V. Ravichandran, managing director of Coromandel Fertilisers.
In addition to its retail stores, Coromandel Fertilisers, which has a manufacturing capacity of 3.1 million tons per year of fertilizers, has also been marketing its products by sending vehicles to remote parts of Andhra Pradesh. The company has a ground staff of 1,200 individuals connected to villages throughout the state.
But be it via retail stores, trucks, farmers meetings or media advertising, fertilizer companies, big and small, primary, secondary and micronutrient producers, agree that having product demonstrations is the key to selling new products and expanding the market.
"We believe in approaching the farmers directly," says Mahesh Gopal Shetty, director of the Karnataka-based Multiplex Group of Companies, which produces micronutrients, bio fertilizers, organic manure, pesticides and bio pesticides. "Seeing is believing for these guys."

DFM FOODS - RESULT UPDATE

DFM FOODS POSTED A TURNOVER OF Rs.29 cr V/S Rs.16 Cr AND A NET PROFIT OF Rs 2.13 Cr V/S Rs.1 Cr IN SEPTEMBER QTR .HALF YEAR EPS IS Rs 3.41 v/s Rs.2.19 .ONE CAN HOLD IT FOR LONG TERM

Thursday, October 28, 2010

VIMAL OIL AND FOODS - RESULT UPDATE

VIMAL OIL AND FOODS POSTED A TURNOVER OF Rs.248 cr V/S Rs.148 Cr AND A NET PROFIT OF Rs 2.5 Cr V/S Rs.1 Cr IN SEPTEMBER QTR.ONE CAN HOLD IT FOR LONG TERM

SPICE JET - MOVING TO THE NEXT ORBIT



Spicejet is one of the big success stories in aviation industry of India in recent past.This best low cost airline in South Asia was originally promoted by Ajay Singh and the Kansagra family . Currently Spicejet claims a 12 % market share in Indian aviation industry. Recent entry of Kalanidhi Maran as the main promoter is expected to take the company to the next level. Financial muscle and other influence of the new promoters are expected to help the company which operates in a highly regulated industry. Aviation Industry is showing some early signs of revival worldwide . When we take it in Indian perspective,there are two positive factors .First one is the comparatively better situation of growth in Indian industry as a whole, which will ensure higher business travels . On the other side , since the world economy is still under stress, the price of ATF  is not going beyond affordable  level. Company recently started its international operations with the launch of Chennai-Colombo and Delhi-Kathmandu routes  and the new management is expected to pay much attention in this line .  Mr Neil Mill has recently appointed as the new CEO of  Spiceject. He is coming to the company with a 12 year experience with ' easyJet'  one of  the Europe’s  most successful low cost carriers.He  also worked with  'Fly Dubai' , the state-run low cost carrier of Dubai. Spiceject has taken various efforts in recent past to cut cost  and improve load factor .Even if its equity will be increased after the conversion of warrants ,Spicejet is  expected to generate higher profit and scale the business to new levels which will justify the increase in equity. In last September quarter, company posted a loss of Rs.101 Cr ,but this time it is expected to post profit at net level.
One may hold at current level and take any correction as an opportunity to BUY for long term. Keep an eye on the movement of the price of ATF which is one of the crucial factor affecting the profitability of airline industry. CMP is Rs.86/-

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

DFM FOODS - UPDATE

Earlier Recommended @ Rs.48/-
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In a country like India with huge population and increasing
disposable income , scope of companies from food processing
sector is very vast,especially those with good brands.But,
unfortunately many such brands are owned by unlisted
players or high priced MNC’s . Only very few companies
developed niche market and established their own brands
and growing handsomely. DFM Foods is one of such company
which is a dominant regional market player in snacks foods
sector. DFM is promoted by Delhi Flour Mills and had two
divisions till last year – Wheat storage Business and Snack
Foods Business. From last year onwards DFM discontinued
the low margin wheat storage business and now concentrating
only in snack foods division.Its brands  CRAX,NATKHAT,
WIZZ ..etc are popular in northern part of India.Last year
company expanded its capacity at a cost of Rs.13 Crore and
due to huge demand for its products now again planning to
expand the capacity further. Company is also taking steps to
make it a Pan India brand in few years from now.In last
financial year DFM’s snack foods division shows a growth
of 35% in turnover(Total turnover was less due to
discontinuation of wheat storage business).Net profit also
sharply improved from Rs.1.99 Cr to Rs.4.21 Cr backed by
better margins from snack foods division. In the first
qtr of this financial year(June qtr) company shows an increase
of 50% in its sales from Rs.13 Cr to Rs.20 Cr .With increasing
urbanization and changing life styles,demand for snacks
foods are expected to rise sharply and on the other side the
expected record production of wheat will reduce the pressure
of raw material cost which will help the company to record
better performance going forward. Earlier, company had an
image of a wheat trader and enjoyed only low valuation due
to the image of a trading company. But now it is a pure
FMCG/food processing like play and it should be re-rated
accordingly. There is good scope for appreciation from
current level of Rs.54/- 

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

YUKEN INDIA -RESULT UPDATE

I have recommended YUKEN INDIA @ Rs.140/- in March 2010 (Old Report can be accessed HERE) .Company came out with its ever best numbers in  September quarter with a turnover of Rs.38 Cr(Rs.26 Cr) and a net profit of Rs.3.24 Cr (Rs.1.74 Cr) .Half year EPS is Rs.15.25 v/s Rs.4.93. .It is expected to close the FY with an EPS about Rs.35 + .Currently it is trading @ Rs.292/- .Long term investors can still HOLD it .

Monday, October 25, 2010

FUTURE LEADERS OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET ?

Niche plays are always catching attention of the investor fraternity and commanding premium over others in stock market in any country. Everybody is confident about Indian growth based on the hard working of middle class to attain better standard of living and their  changing style of spending. Similarly everybody in stock market is aware that today’s small caps and mid caps are tomorrow’s leaders, if it is backed by efficient promoters and scalable business models. Below I am presenting eight such stocks which are expected  to turn as future leaders in 5-10 year time frame .All these stocks are familiar to all of you and most of them are trading with sufficient volume and market capitalization. This is not a recommendation to BUY these stocks at current level , but keep this in mind and take the advantage of any market correction going forward to build a portfolio .Companies promoted only  by Indians promoters(or changing management in favor of Indians) are included in this list.


(1) ONMOBILE GLOBAL







Experienced management ,undisputed leadership position , aggressive expansion through organic and in organic route  in a sector with huge opportunity is inviting attention to this MVAS player.

CMP                                       –             Rs .368
P/E Based on FY 2010           -                    40 X
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(2)  TALWALKAR BETTER VALUE FITNESS





Increasing awareness of public about their  health , Good brand Name,Rapid expansion to tier II cities are positive for this company .

It was earlier recommended at Rs.162/-

CMP                       -      Rs 223/-

P/E Based on FY 2010           -            50 X
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(3) BIOCON







No need of explanation for one of the  India’s largest Bio-Pharma companies .Successful commercialization of its oral insulin program is expected to change its fortune which is now going through Phase III of clinical trials.


CMP         - Rs.445

P/E Based on FY 2010           -            35 X
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(4) KAVERI SEED COMPANY 







This integrated agri company is catching attention mainly due to the future potential of the industry in which it is operating , strong R & D , reputed brand name, aggressive expansion plans and health of its balance sheet.We have discussed about it many times here .For more details ,search the blog.

CMP   Rs.335

P/E Based on FY 2010           -    16 X      
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5) JUBILANT FOOD WORKS.





It was one of the most successful IPO in last FY .The only pure listed company from the food service industry is the darling of FII’s and other institutional investors mainly because of the vast opportunities available in a highly populated country like India , backed by experienced promoters . Company is aggressively expanding its operations to countries like Sri Lanka ,Bangladesh ..etc. It also trying to clinch similar business relations  with some other  big brands of the west as in the case of  DOMINO’s.

CMP   Rs 507/-
P/E Based on FY 2010           -            92 X

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6) CAIRN INDIA








India’s largest Non PSU oil producer is a hot subject among investors after the proposed takeover of  Vedanta  Group led by Anil Agarwal. The revival in world economies are expected to cause for a rise in oil prices and such an event will immensely benefit Cairn India.

CMP  Rs.335/-

P/E Based on FY 2010           -            60 X
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7) YES BANK







A steady performer led by an able banker. The low density of banks in India is offering lot of chances for expansion of branch network. This new generation technology driven  bank will be one of the big beneficiary


CMP  Rs 370/-

P/E Based on FY 2010           -            24 X


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8) FORTIS HEALTHCARE






Even if its previous attempt to become a global player by taking over Parkway Holdings  failed ,this health care provider is expected to grow exponentially under the leadership of young brothers in a sector with huge opportunity.

CMP     Rs 163/-

P/E Based on FY 2010           -            143 X--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Note :

If we follow the conventional methods of stock selection based on various valuation parameters ,none of the above may qualify for a BUY at present. But considering the opportunities available in these sectors where the mentioned  companies are operating and the ability of managements behind these companies may make wonders going forward . So keep an eye on these companies and try to catch them in any decent correction and keep for long term for wealth creation.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

DEEPAK NITRITE - PRODUCT FOR THE FUTURE



 



Deepak Nitrite  is a Baroda Based company manufacturing Organic,Inorganic ,Fine and Speciality chemicals.Its product list covers Sodium Nitrite,Methoxamyne,Resorcinol,Xylidine, Acetoxime, Alkali Blue, Benzotriazole, N-O-Alkylated Hydroxylamines..etc.These products are mainly used in the manufacturing process of  Agrochemical Intermediaries,Bulk Drugs, Brightning Intermediaries and Rubber Chemicals.DNL is India’s largest manufacturer of  Diamino Stilbene Disulfonic Acid  which is using for manufacturing Optical Brightning Agents..Last year company started the work of a Greenfield Chemical project in Gujarat which will increase its capacity substantially going forward. What catching our attention in this company is its recent launch of Fuel Additive Products. These products are used for improving the quality and efficiency of fuels and make it latest  Euro compliant . Company’s products from this division is expected to play a crucial role in India’s transformation from Euro 1 to Euro II and Euro IV standards .Company already got orders from domestic refineries and expected a turnover of around Rs.75 Cr from this division by next financial year. It is sure ,Government  will eventually make Euro Compliance  to all cities in not so distant future. This will open  huge opportunity for the company going forward. In the financial front company has posted an EPS of Rs.22/- and declared a dividend of 50% in last FY.The first quarter of this FY was even better and it is expected to improve its performance going forward due to the overall improvement in the user industries of its products.Currently DNL is trading at Rs.191/- .Medium to long  term investors can BUY at current level.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

KENNAMETAL INDIA - REPEAT

This scrip was earlier recommended @ Rs.350/- which is
currently trading around Rs.457/- .Last qtr performance
was excellent for the company and the good growth
visible in auto industry is expected to help the
company to perform even better in near future.
One may consider a BUY at current level for medium term .
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Kennametal India (KIL), formerly WIDIA INDIA is a
part of Kennametal Inc, USA and this Indian unit
is located at Bangalore . Company is a machine tool
major caters to auto and auto related industries,
light and general engineering industries. Its product
portfolio includes Metal & Metalworking Solutions ,
Machine Tools and Engineered Products .Worldwide
recession severely affected the company’s performance
last year and due to lack of sufficient demand
company cuts its production level ,reduce wages and
even shut down its plants for few days in last FY.
Demand of its products are closely linked with the
overall growth of core sector. Company’s customers
include GM, TVS, TELCO ,Yamaha, BHEL,
Northern Railways, Ordinance and Armament factories,
Inter Drill Asia, Escorts, Gabriel, Sterling Tools
and SKF Bearings. Most of the customers are showing
revival in their operations now.Last year Kennametal
posted a turnover of Rs.305 cr. And a net profit
of 28 cr.Company’s year ending is June and for
the half year ended Dec.2009 company’s turnover is
166 cr,and NP is 24 cr.,Which is much higher than
the last year same period.Kennametal is expected
to come back to its previous golden days soon.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

TIMEX GROUP INDIA - REPEAT

Timex Group India  recommended as a BUY ON  DECLINE ,when it was at Rs.46/-. Currently it is trading @ Rs.42/- ,a dip of 10% .One may BUY 1/3 of the required quantity at current level.

Old report is re produced below

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Timex Group is one of the largest watch makers in the world
Its Indian arm TIMEX GROUP INDIA started its operations
in 1992 in  association with TATA group ,but later part their
ways and now working  independently. For the past many
years company was struggling to exist ,but now it showing
some signs of recovery. Company  wiped off all accumulated
losses and coming back to growth path after changing its entire
strategy. Now company is selling its brands TIMEX,
MARK ECKO,NAUTICA, SALVATORE FERRAGAMO .
Etc through retailers and its own show rooms named ‘THE
TIME FACTORY’ .In the beginning of this year  , Mr Kapil
Kapoor from India has appointed as the COO of  Timex
Group’s worldwide operations . He is well experienced and
earlier with Nestle and Bausch & Lomb. After his appointment
as global COO, the Indian arm is enjoying more flexibility and
showing real improvement in all aspects. Now the company is
aggressively chalking out plans to capturing market share and
reducing costs. Currently company concentrating in price range
between Rs 500 and Rs 5,000 and claiming a market share of
21 % in this category. Company is now seriously thinking about
re-positioning its brands in other price category too. There is
also fair chance for brand extension to other lifestyle products
going forward. In first qtr  June 2010 ,sales grew 45 per cent,
while profits grew 107 per cent over the corresponding period.
Company posted a NP of Rs.5 Cr in this qtr where in last
FULL YEAR  it posted Rs.4.6 Cr only .Company having an
equity base close to 10 Cr  ,out of this almost 75% held by the
foreign entity. In order to clean up  the balance sheet ,company
reduced its FV to Rs.1/- and write off the balance earlier.
Considering the renewed interest of the management and
aggressive steps taken in recent past ,it is expected to perform
well going forward. But one should consider the fact that the
share price has run up sharply after the declaration of June
qtr result and now trading around its 52 week high .
One should keep watching and enter in a correction .
Currently it is trading around Rs.46/-

Saturday, October 16, 2010

LUDLOW JUTE AND SPECIALITIES LTD

Ludlow Jute and Specialities ltd is the first ISO 9002 jute mill in the world and belongs to SS Kanoria Group.Its jute mill is located in Hooghly in a 100 acre  prime land owned by the company.It is one of the best mechanized mills in the jute industry and its products are widely used in industries like Packaging,Carpet manufacturing,  Horticulture scrim cloth, Explosive, Fabrics and bags.. etc. Due to increasing awareness and mandatory requirements , fortunes of  jute industry is expected to get a boost in near future due to its bio-degradable nature over synthetic materials.Company is now modernizing it plants to increase the quantity and quality of its products. Company is improving its financials by exploring new opportunities and reducing wastage and other costs .For the first qtr of FY 2011 ,Ludlow posted a turnover of  Rs.77 Cr and a net profit of Rs.7.6 Cr .This growth is expected to continue in coming qtrs. Company also declared a dividend of 15% for FY 2010. CMP of Ludlow Jute is around  Rs.89/- .Long term investors  can consider it in any correction.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

JAGATJIT INDUSTRIES - REPEAT

I have earlier recommended this scrip @ Rs.65/- ,which is now quoting around Rs.110/-,an appreciation of around 70 % in six months.I reiterate a BUY even at current level for long term investors.

Old Report can be accessed HERE

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

JENBURKT PHARMACEUTICALS LTD - BUY






Jenburkt  Pharma (BSE CODE -524731) is promoted by Mr. Hemendra N. Bhuta in 1985 and currently lead by Mr. Uttam N. Bhuta. Company’s  headquarters is in Mumbai and WHO approved  plant is located in Gujarat. Jenburkt is a manufacturer of various category of medicines includes Antibiotics,Anti-diabetics,Anti-inflammatory,Dermatology..etc.Along with this ,company is also making a sugar substitute with the brand name ‘NOCAL’ under the consumer division. Company is growing steadily for the past few years and it is planning to concentrate in high margin products going forward. It also planning to pay much attention to introduce more products under its consumer division. For the full year ended March 2010,company posted a turnover of Rs.52.6 Cr ( Rs.43.7 Cr) and a net profit of Rs.3.8 Cr( Rs.1.6 Cr) .On an equity base of 4.6 Cr  EPS was at Rs.8.13 . In the latest June qtr Company posted an EPS of Rs.2.85 v/s 0.86 .Company also having an uninterrupted dividend paying history for the  last five years .In FY 2010 company paid a dividend of  30 % for FV 10 shares.Promoters are aggressively hiking their stake through open market purchases is also a positive factor. Medium term investors can consider this Pharma company as a value BUY
@ CMP of Rs.85/-

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

AHLCON PARENTERALS - UPDATE

I have recommended a BUY on AHLCON PARENTERALS @ Rs.64/- ,on 10th June 2010.(Old Report can be Accessed HERE)Currently it is trading around Rs.115/- ,an appreciation of 90% in four months .Company's financial performance is expected to improve further going forward. HOLD it for reasonable gains even from current level in medium to long term.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA LTD - BUY









Film industry is always a risky one ,but higher profit is always associated only with higher risk.So this recommendation is only for higher risk takers as the business of the company. Eros International Media Ltd(EIML) is a newly listed player from this space .This 30 year old company is a dominant player in movie distribution/co-production in India  and abroad. Overeseas distribution activities are mainly channelised through Eros international Plc (An AIM (UK)) listed company and Eros worldwide . Back home ,along with the strong presence in  national level ,its indirect subsidiary Ayngaran International is a reputed name in Tamil film industry. Other associate companies under its fold includes Big Screen entertainment,Eros Animation, Eye Qube Studios, Ayngaran International(UK) Ltd..etc.Currently company having a movie library of over 1000 film which is one of the largest in India. Company’s CAGR of film distribution is showing a strong 33% for the period 2008-2010. It also having strong visibility for next 2 years and availability of fund at lower cost through IPO is expected to improve its competitive position in the industry .. In the current FY company is expected to post an EPS close to Rs.12/- on the diluted equity . Even if the competition is heating up in this sector , EROS’s longstanding experience is a real asset for the company. Yes, few flops may rewrite the story and there may be volatility in earnings on periodic basis ,  but  experience of promoters and their history may help the company to bring  big surprises going forward .Remember ,it is only for high risk takers .Currently it is trading around Rs.190/- which is just 10% above its IPO price.  

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

KILPEST INDIA LTD - NEW RELATIONS ,NEW POSSIBILITIES.




Even if it is a 38 year old company ,its turnover is still below 20 Cr.But this Bhopal based Pesticides and Agrochemicals company-KILPEST INDIA LTD- is growing steadily over the past few years.Sales improved from last years  Rs.15 Cr to Rs.19 Cr in FY 2010.,NP also improved from Rs27 Lac to Rs.49 lac. In the small base,export also grew by 115% in last year .No doubt ,the sector in which it is operating having good potential but only time will tell whether the promoters are able to scale up the business to a respectable level.Kilpest is the producer of Pesticides
(CYPERCOT,KIDON,KILDOFAR,KILTHION..Etc) , fungicides (KILTAF,AJOMIL,BLAST..Etc) .
To align with  the latest  trend  in agri sector ,company also started to concentrate  in Biological products which include  Bio Pesticides ,Bio Fungicides ,Bio Fertilizers ,Plant growth stimulators ..etc Company is now seriously exploring opportunities in Medical Genomics using Biotechnology.For this purpose ,recently company signed an agreement with Spanish company BIOTOOLS to establish a joint venture in India with 51:49 participation.This facility is indented to carryout research and development of innovative products and technologies in the clinical, molecular biology and Agfood areas. Company’s plans are very big and chances in these fields are very vast , but the past history of the promoters not giving much confidence .Only high risk takers with long term view  can try with some amount with which you are ready to forget.CMP is Rs.15/-

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

EPC INDUSTRIE - UPDATE

EPC INDUSTRIE is one of our past  recommendation @ Rs.61/-.Today it touched its lifetime high @ Rs.84.30 and closed @ Rs.82.20 Investors with medium-long term view can HOLD this micro irrigation company  for decent gain .

Old Report can be accessed HERE

CENLUBE INDUSTRIES - BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT

Cenlube Industries recommended on 17 June 2010 @ Rs.20/-.Currently it is trading @ Rs.40.85 ,an appreciation of  100 % in less than four  months .May book profit in 50% to  recover entire cost and hold the balance cost free.

OLD REPORT HERE

Saturday, October 2, 2010

NOT A RECOMMENDATION ,JUST AN INFORMATION


 

 
Reading the stories of companies came back to glory  from the brisk of collapse is always interesting ,encouraging and thrilling. Other investors can learn many lessons from such stories. But in many such cases ,promoters of such companies are unwilling to share their experience in bad days with media or even to the minority share holders. We can find many such companies in listed space like Jain Irrigation, Orchid Chemicals, Diamond power infrastructure..etc. Recently I came across an article about a company which is going through rough weather for past many years, in a financial journal. I am unable to predict whether this company will come back to black in near future or not,but I consider the willingness of the MD to face the media after a long gap is an indication of some favorable developments in the company. Don’t consider it is a recommendation to BUY the stock of this company ,but ,just take it only as a sharing of  information to those who could not read the article. I know ,many of you will stop  reading  this post ,just after hearing the name of the company .Anyway it is INDAGE RESTAURANT AND LEISURE LTD.

STORY IN NUTSHELL

Most of the investors are aware that the happenings in debt ridden  Indage Group – mainly Indage Vintners Ltd-which is now  fighting for survival. Indage Vintners  is managed by Renjith Chougule  sibling of  Vickrant Chougule the MD of Indage restaurant and Leisure Ltd . No doubt, both are running independently .Indage Restaurant and Leisure is running restaurants in five genre viz, Quick Service Restaurants(QSR),Casual dining, Wine Cafes and Bistros, Fine Dining and Pubs, and Resorts and Hotels.Under QRS it is operating Gracia’s Pizza Chain with 20 outlets (Remember ,the market leader Jubilant Foodworks having 300 +) .In casual dining ,it has a master franchise agreement with South African dining chain  NANDO’S  and running three  restaurants in this brand name. under ‘ Wine Cafes and Bistros’ it is running ‘IVY’- in  Seven different locations. Under ‘Fine Dining and Clubs’,company running  Japanese restaurant ‘Tetsuma’ and ‘Athena’ and ‘Prive’ clubs in Mumbai and ‘Zaha’in Pune.Under ‘Resorts and Hotel’ segment ,company running ‘Hotel Shalini Palace in Kolhapur(only palace resort in Maharastra) and ‘Tiger Hill’ resort in Nasik. Positioning in these different segments clearly indicating that the company operating in almost all levels of hospitality industry.

Then what is wrong with ?

In FY 2008 ,company posted a turnover of Rs.24.6 Cr and a net profit Rs.3.1 Cr. Thereafter company’s operations de railed , and it could not service its debt of close to  Rs.30 Cr. Reduction in  spending of people due to the fear of  recession in that period added fuel to the fire. Even if it is working as a separate entity ,the bad image of Group mainly due to the problems of Indage Vintners adversely affect companies business plans and further expansion. In FY 2009 ,company posted a turnover of Rs.25.3 Cr and a net loss of Rs.12.35 Cr.









Current Situation

As mentioned in the beginning ,there was no information about the company’s financial plans or results in public domain after the declaration of December 2009 results. In the above mentioned article ,the author indicates that the company posted a loss of Rs.8 Cr in March 2010 full year which is a reduction from the loss of Rs.12.35 Cr in FY 2009.Now company is trying for a  debt restructuring and induction of a strategic partner. It also changing its business model  and trying to expend through franchise route pan India. Company is also  going to start two Nando’s outlets one each in Bangalore and
Chandigarh  in November 2010. Management expecting a turnover of  Rs.40 Cr in this FY and back to black in FY 12 provided the debt restructuring is cleared .
My opinion

1)      Company have lot of problems and the opportunities are equally big
2)      MD of the company is young (38 years) and enough time to learn from the mistakes and prove himself.
3)      The Industry in which company is operating have huge potential in India and companies from such a sector may get premium valuations in stock market going forward.(After the publication of the mentioned report itself share price rallied from Rs.8/- to Rs.14/-)
4)      Managements willingness to share information with the public after a long gap  is really a positive sign
5)      The franchise model business development in food chain business have great potential in a country like India
6)      If the company is not able to restructure its debt in reasonable time ,its net worth may be in a pathetic situation going forward.
7)      It is not easy to find out a good partner before the image of the group improves(after emerging a clear picture about Indage Vintners)
8)      MD’s five is target is a sale of Rs.200 Cr and a net profit of Rs 55-60 Cr is really ambitious and no chance to materialize.
9)      At present management has  reached a stage where they can at least imagine and dream something about future -is really positive.
10)   Non filing of information like financial result  to stock exchange may invite penal action



Conclusion

I personally believe that , if setbacks in business happened even after the hard work of management and only because of some reasons beyond the control of  management ,god will give atleast one chance to come back, provided such a collapse is not  purposefully created by the management to cheat other investors or related parties.

ALL THE INFORMATIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS ARE BASED ON A REPORT WRITTEN BY Mr V KESHVDEV IN OUT LOOK PROFIT


COURTSY : OUTLOOK PROFIT


Once again  I would like to indicate that this is not a recommendation to BUY or NOT TO BUY ,Study yourself  and take a decision .CMP is Rs.14/-



                                  

Friday, October 1, 2010

TIMKEN INDIA - UPDATE

I have recommended a BUY on TIMKEN INDIA @ Rs.125/- ,on 3rd May 2010.Currently it is trading around Rs.154/- .Based on the expected good demand from the user industries for its products ,I reiterate a BUY at current level for reasonable return in medium term.

Old report can be accessed HERE

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