Wednesday, July 28, 2010

DR . AGARWAL'S EYE HOSPITAL LTD - BUY @CMP -Rs.71/-

Corporate hospital chains are catching the attention
of Investors in recent times and this industry is
considered as a sunrise sector. Along with this ,
specialized hospital are expected to came to limelight
in near future. Dr.Agarwal’s Eye hospital is the largest
listed specialised eye hospital chain operating in India.
This company is promoted by Dr.J Agarwal in 1994 at
Chennai.At preset it has 30 Centres in Tamilnadu, 1 in
Andhra ,2 in Rajasthan and 1 centre in Mauritius .Company
offering all latest treatments in eye care and ophthalmology .
Company is going through an aggressive expansion and
planning pan India operations in near future. In the initial
years ,this type of an industry requires large capital
expenditure to start hospitals .Buy when reached a critical
mass the margins will be higher. So long term investors can
BUY this at CMP of Rs.71/-. For the last FY ,company
posted a turnover of 87 Cr and a net profit of 52 lacs. In the
latest June qtr ,company posted a turnover of Rs.26 Cr and
a NP of 1.2 Cr.

BHAGIRATHA CHEM - EXIT

Company decided to discontinue one of its major product which will affect its profitability in near future .So better to exit from this co.

Monday, July 26, 2010

CENLUB INDUSTRIES - RESULT UPDATE

 Below is the comparative figures with last year same qtr:

                             JUNE QTR 2010        JUNE QTR 2009

TURNOVER           5.83 Cr                    3.26 Cr

NET PROFIT         60 Lakhs                  26 Lakhs


EPS                        .96                          .42

Company is small in size ,but growing steadily over many qtrs .

Sunday, July 25, 2010

YUKEN INDIA - RESULT UPDATE

Yuken India is one of our favorite stock which we recommended twice @ Rs.140/- and @ Rs.160/- in the past .Currently it is quoting around Rs.235/-.Company declared its first qtr result on Saturday. Below is the comparative figures with last year same qtr:

                             JUNE QTR 2010        JUNE QTR 2009

TURNOVER           28.73 Cr                    17.22 Cr

NET PROFIT         1.34 Cr                       LOSS OF 28 Lakhs


EPS                        Rs.4.47 /-                  - .87

Company's sales and profitability showing seasonal variations and historically June qtr is one of the weak qtr for the company .Even in such a qtr company performed well and raw material prices are stabilized now.Moreover company is planning a capex of Rs.15 Cr in near future to increase capacity and modernisation  .The entire funding will be through internal accruals and loans.Considering all these facts ,better days are expected ahead and one can HOLD it.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

A WORD OF CAUTION

Most of the stock market participants are in a happy mood
when indices ruling at a two year high. Since this rally
is broad based even retail investors are making handsome
profit. I am sure ,in a market like this any word of
caution will be ignored and there is lot of justification
for doing that. I am not discouraging anyone from
investing even at this point but just a caution about the
stock selection. We are here to make money, even that with
no waiting.When we take the list of stocks hitting new highs
everyday ,most of the names other than from the ‘A'group
are not familiar for majority of the investors. Why it
happens so?. There is two reasons for spurt in share prices
now,one is genuine buying by investors hoping better
performance of the company ahead and secondly because
of the activities of promoters and operators to en-cashing
the opportunity available in the market because of the
prevailing sentiment.Promoters of the first type of companies
may not interested in the daily movement of their share
prices and they are concentrating only in the business and
believing that in the long run the share price will eventually
reflect the financial strength of their companies .Share prices
of such companies may move slowly even in a bull market
because there is only genuine investors in such counters.
On the other side,promoters of some lesser known companies
are interested only in the share price movement and not in
their business.Such promoters are trying to push up the
prices of the shares in a hurry and distribute it to the retailers
and make gain out of it. Movement of such stocks are very
speedy and may be even trade only in upper circuits for
many days.In such a situation ,retailers feels desperate
by keeping slow moving good stocks and tempting to offload
such stocks and run behind fast moving stocks without
checking their basics.When the nature of market changes or
promoter/operator offloading is over ,fast moving stocks
crash down even more faster and never come back since
there is no business behind it.If one’s entry and exit is at
correct point such stocks may give returns but in 90% cases
the retailers will be in wrong foot due to many reasons
including greed and loss substantial amount and even exit
from such stocks are possible only in the following bull
market which may occur after many years. On the other
hand slow moving stocks of companies concentrating in
business always give decent return in long term because
the business also growing. So,while investing in bull market,
always take risk only at affordable level and don’t
forget- preserving our capital is important than making
money from market.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

CHAMANLAL SETIA EXPORTS




Chamanlal Setia Exports is the processor and exporter of Rice under
the brand name 'MAHARANI' Company has two rice processing units
located one each at Amritsar and Karnal ,with a total capacity of 100000 MT
pet annum.Company exporting three variety of products viz - Parboiled Basmati
Rice,Polished Basmati Rice and Basmati Health Rice. Last year most of the
riceexporting companies faced tough times mainly because of low productivity
due to lack of sufficient monsoon and also because of unfavorable exchange
value of Indian currency.Both these aspects are expected to be positive in
this year.In 2010 March,Company posted a turnover of Rs.183 Crore and a
net profit of Rs.6 Crore .On an equity base of 9.4 Cr ,company posted an
EPS of Rs.7.25/-  and it is currently trading at Rs.44 with a P/E of 6.  
Chamanlal  Setia Exports is expected to give decent  return going forward.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

BHAGWATI AUTOCAST LTD - BETTER DAYS AHEAD



Bhagwati autocast is a cast iron product manufacturer
located in Ahmedabad . Company having an annual
capacity of 18000 Metric ton and it is supplying
to industries like Automotive, Engineering, Hydraulic
and compressor making.Its customers includes Escorts,
Mahindra Tractors ,Punjab Tractors,Swaraj Engines and
Swaraj Mazda from auto related sectors and Vickers systems
and Bosch Rexroth from Hydraulic sector and HMT, Kirloskar
oil engines,Siemens from engineering sector …etc.
In FY 2010 company posted a turnover of Rs.52 Crore
and a net profit of 2.3 Cr.On its small equity of just
2.9 Crore company posted an EPS of Rs.8/- .All of the
sectors consuming its products are showing good
growth now, which is expected to help the company to
post even better result in current financial year.
Company is currently trading at Rs.34/- with a P/E multiple
of just 4 to last year EPS which is at the lower end .

Monday, July 19, 2010

FCS SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS LTD - ADVERTISEMENT FROM ONE SIDE SELLING THROUGH OTHER SIDE


We are seeing lot of advertisements of FCS software  in
business channels like CNBC in these days claiming its
glory and  expansion plans.This is increasing the confidence
of retailers and they are buying in bulk with very big dreams.
But what is really happening through the other side is really
alarming .Promoters are offloading their holding in open market
on a daily basis . But they are very smart  and it seems that the
major sellers are absent in last half an hour to get a higher closing
rate(closing rate is calculated on the basis of Weighted average of
last half an hour only) and continue their selling on the next day.
Have a look at the latest sale figure of its Main promoter
cum MD cum Chairman Mr Dalip Kumar  in open market.


Date of Sale                      Qty Sold

3 June 2010                       5000000     (Fifty Lac)

6 July 2010                        5000000      (Fifty Lac)

14 July 2010                      10000000   (One Crore)

15 July 2010                      15000000    (1.5 Crore)


Now everybody knows the reason of daily advertisement
through business channels . If everything claimed by company
are true ,what is the meaning of these huge sell figures of the
promoter ???? .So take utmost care while buying shares
of companies giving unnecessary
advertisements and  announcements through channels.
If more companies following this trend ,it is better to
considering  a buy of  the shares of companies running
business channels ,since they are the only beneficiaries
other than promoters of these type fraud companies.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

TRANSPEK INDUSTRY LTD - BUY

Transpek Industry Ltd is a 45 year old company established
in Baroda by Shroff Group.It is one of the largest
producers and exporters of organic and inorganic chemicals
from India. Its products are used in industries like
Petrochemicals, Pharmaceuticals,Agrochemicals ,Dyes
and polymer.Company manufacturing more than 50
products used in these industries.Out of the total sales,
close to 60% income derived from exports and balance
from domestic sales. Transpek has a good research division
too for inventing new products.In last financial year
performance of the company was severely affected by
foreign exchange loss on derivative
contracts which the company entered to hedge the risk.
Now after the stabilizing of exchange rate and improvement
in demand of company’s various products ,it is expected to
perform better in this year. One can BUY for decent return
in medium term at CMP of Rs.100/-

Saturday, July 17, 2010

STURDY INDUSTRIES - BETTER TO AVOID





This company is projected as a mutibagger by
many sources and many readers are asking my
opinion on this . Considering various factors ,
even if the industry in which company is operating
is promising  ,Sturdy is not giving any confidence to
me because of the following reasons.




1)      Even if company showing improvement in sales ,
no growth in profits in proportion of sales growth.
Out of the 145 Cr sales posted in last qtr 100 Cr are
from trading activities  and only balance 45 are
from core activities  and even this dramatic
improvement in  trading figures are unbelievable.

2)      When we invest in a small company and ready
to hold it for a long time on expectation of mutibagger
return ,we should give priority to the integrity of the
promoters of such a company, which lacks in the case of
Sturdy Industries.We can take few indications for this.
First one is ,Company’s proposal to merge two promoter
owned companies M/S Nuline India Private Ltd and
M/S Swati Storwel Private Ltd was rejected  by the
Himachal High court with a fine of Rs.50000 and court
also commented that  at every stage of the proceedings
the petitioners have tried to withhold information from the
court or to mislead the court.You can access the  said
court order HERE. I think this not the quality of a good
promoter. Secondly, In a filing to BSE dated 15.07.2010
company informed BSE that FII's has withdrawn their
consent to invest in the Company . I  think this also is
not a good sign at all and it may happen either the said
FII studied the company well after committing an
investment and decided to avoid it because of the
quality of company ,or this FII commitment never
happened earlier and company published such a news
only to lure retail investors to rig the price ..


Thirdly,Company  recently came out with an
unwarranted stocks splits when its price was
around just Rs.25. In case of stocks splits of
companies quoting  at lower level ,90 out of
100 cases are only to create artificial volume to
attract retail investors and make an easy way to
exit the promoter and related parties .Before such
an exit , promoters itself may take additional shares
in order to make additional profit even if there is no
proposal for any new investment by the company.


3)      Big investors are always in a better position to
know the happenings in any company than small retail
investor. So their action is also a point to note.
In June 2009 ,large investors holding in this company
were almost 30 % and now it is just 8 % . Some of them
are even completely exited. (You can access the sample
selling details HERE).This also is not a good sign for any
company.I strongly believes that the recent BUY tips 
on this counter from various sources were only to
attract retail investors  in order to create liquidity for an
easy exit of some big players.
 

In nut shell , This company is not an attractive
one for me by any means to give  multibagger
returns. In a bull market  any company may move
ahead due to many reasons other than
fundamentals , but while buying such stocks ,don’t
forget bull market will not continue forever .
So take a decision by yourself

Thursday, July 15, 2010

TECHTRAN POLYLENSES LTD- Change in Management may Change its Fortune


Techtran Poly lenses is the largest Plastic ophthalmic lense
manufacturer from India.Its manufacturing facility is located
at Hyderabad and having a capacity of 5 million lenses per annum.
Company making Progressive,Bio-focal and single vision lenses .
Even if company’s products are well known for its quality ,it failed to
set up good marketing channel and scale up the promising business
beyond certain level. This is mainly because of the scarcity of funds
and lack of business sense of promoters. Citing the opportunity
available with the company ,  Dr.Jayaram Chigurupathi ,promoter of
Zenotech Lab - through Credence Infrastructure Ltd -took over
this company last month. As mentioned earlier promoters efficiency
and lack of funds were the main problems of the company in the
past and which is expected to compensated going forward
by the change in management control. Last year company posted
a turnover of Rs.29 Crore and a net profit of Rs.2 Crore.
Earlier company was exporting its products to few re-sellers which dent
its margins . Re-working this strategy by setting up its own retail
chain and introducing value added products , which company is planning
now may change its fortune. Keep an eye on this one ,CMP is Rs.23/-

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

COSMO FERRITES Ltd - REPEAT

I have recommended this company on 26th April 2010 at Rs.13/-.Currently it is quoting at Rs.15.80/- .Based on the expected better performance going forward,this is the second time.Old write up is reproduced below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cosmo Ferrite Ltd is a Cosmo Films group company 
and one of the largest manufacturer of
Manganese Zinc Soft-ferrite from India.Major applications of
Ferrites are in Inverter transformers,
driver transformers,pulse transformers,
line filters and noise suppressors.It cater the
industries like lighting,telecommunications,
computers,entertainment electronics,process
control and consumer electronic devices 
.Major part of company’s products are exported ,
mainly to USA. Company having manufacturing
facility to make 2350ton ferrites powder and
2000 ton ferrites component annually .
This industry is cyclical in nature and now
it is coming out of a bad cycle .For the last six
months company is showing turnaround performance .
Now it is quoting around Rs.13/-.Keep an eye on this. 

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

FCS SOFTWARE -SMART PROMOTERS

More than once I have recommended investors to stay away from stocks like FCS Software.When we go through the share holding pattern of this company over the past few qtrs ,we will get a clear picture about the happenings in the company.It is as follows:

Period     Sh. held by promoters     % of pro.holding     Total sh. 
                                                                                    holders
June 09       9798428                            67.68                  9258

Sep 09       8298428                             57.32                  9344

Mar10     165,968,560 (Post split)         31.34                  55602


This trend clearly indicating that promoters are offloading shares and it is distributed among general public

Need more explanation ....????      


















Sunday, July 11, 2010

JK AGRIGENETICS - TREASURE HUNT



JK AGRIGENETICS  is a member of JK group companies
established in Hyderabad in 1989. Earlier it was
part of JK Tyre and Industries and later de-merged
into a separate company.This company is engaged in
research and development, production, processing
and marketing of hybrid seeds of Sorghum, Pearl
Millet, Maize, Cotton, Rice, Sunflower, Tomato,
Okra and Hot Pepper. Products are selling under the
brand name 'JK SEEDS'.Company is collaborating
with various national and international
agricultural universities for bringing latest
technology in seed development.In 1999
company set up a Bio tech lab of international
standards at Hyderabad with 15 scientists .
Its Hyderabad plant having a capacity to process
100 ton seeds per day. Company is selling seeds of Cotton,Bajra,Maize,Jowar,Paddy ,Sunflower,
Castor,Mustard,Wheat,Redgram and Soyabean.It also
producing seeds of vegetables like Tomato,Bhendi,
Chilli,Bottle Gourd,Water Melon,Radish,Cabbage,
Sweet Corn,Cucumber and Coriander.Company has
recently started production from Phase 2 of its
new seed processing plant in March 2010.
Due to adverse climatic conditions company's sales
badly affected in last year and company posted
huge loss.It is expected to perform better ahead.



THE REAL ATTRACTION
--------------------
In 2006 ,company planned to de-merge  into two
- Seed division and Investment division . When we dig deep
into the investment division it is amazing to see the
value in it.This division holding shares of JK Lakshmi
Cement(Total current Market value Rs.45 - Crore),JK Paper
(Rs.38 Crore) ,JK Tyre( Rs.99 Cr.) ,Umang Dairies (Rs.3 Cr),
Bengal Assam Company ( Rs.13 Cr).Other than this it also
holding shares in unlisted companies like Fenner India,
Udaipur Cement,Florance Alumina ..Etc. All together its
investment portfolio worth over Rs.200 Cr in current
market price. Remember, its total shares issued are
only 3,506,510 and when we divide its investment
portfolio for these share ,what should be the value
of each share of JK Agri.(Approx.Rs.570/- each) Anyway
company's plan was to de-merge it in a manner so as
a share holder will get 60 shares of seed company and
40 shares of Investment company. Company's proposal was
earlier rejected by Court due to complaints by some
share holders, and company now filed an appeal to the
division bench .This petition is expected to come for
hearing in this month itself . It is expected that Company
is planning to de-list the investment company after
de-merger . I believes If such a reverse book building
happens ,one can recover entire investment (at current
rate) by just surrendering the shares of investment
company alone and keep the shares of seed company
cost free. In nut shell at CMP of Rs 170/- you are
getting a company from JK group operating in a high
potential Agri sector plus part of 200 Crore investment
at a market capitalization of just 59 Crore.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

HOW WE PERFORMED IN FIVE MONTHS

-->I have started writing this blog actively about five months back( even if it created in 2008) to help retailers in their decision making
regarding investment in small and midcap stocks in India.In any bull
market lot of stocks moving sharply, mainly because of reasons other
than its fundamentals like operators activity ,rumors ..etc.So retail
investors should do their own due diligence before acting on any
stock tips and assure that at least there is a working company
behind the name.In many cases ,retailers  actually searching the
fundamentals and realizing facts only in the following bear market
and by that time even their capital may wiped off. As Warren
Buffet once said "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn
who's been swimming naked". In this short span of five
months ,I got active participation from lot of readers through
comments and e-mails and really welcome the same .
Two way communication is always help to clear doubts
and notice unnoticed points , both me and you.
-->I feel it is the right time to look into the performance of our all past  recommendations, and which is as below :

-->All the recommended scrips are included in the list and
companies now quoting below recommended price after
hitting highs are indicated in red colour




-->% of return is NOT annualized


-->



Scrip Name                                REc Price  Hi.since reco High in %

UT LTD
17
41
    141%
TASTY BITE
165
352
130%
WINDSOR MACHINES
35
77
120%
INTERLINK PETROLEUM
33
70
112%
SPICE MOBILES
40
82
105%
YUKEN INDIA
140
280
100%
CHOLAMANDALAM
82
151
84%
ITL INDUSTRIES
54
99
83%
RAM RATNA WIRE
48
85
77%
SANGAL PAPER
17
30
76%
YUKEN INDIA
160
280
75%
MAKERS LAB
35
61
74%
SIMRAN FARMS
30
52
73%
ROTO PUMP
80
137
71%
SHIRPUR GOLD
161
275
70%
JINDAL HOTEL
47
80
70%
SIYARAM SILK MILLS
168
286
70%
ATUL AUTO
71
121
70%
PIONEER INVESTCORP
52
88
69%
CALIFORNIA SOFTWARE
41
69
68%
ARMAN FINANCIAL
21
35
66%
ORIENTAL CARBON
93
151
62%
KOPRAN LTD
29
46
58%
KLRF
23
36
56%
CHOKSI IMAGING
47
73
55%
MEDICAMEN BIO
25
38
52%
BHARAT RASAYAN
80
121
51%
SUMEDHA FISCAL
24
36
50%
NILE LTD
115
169
46%
CHOLAMANDALAM
103
151
46%
APAR INDUSTRIES
150
284
43%
ITL INDUSTRIES
69
99
43%
VIJAY SHANTHI BUILDERS
35
50
42%
STERLING STRIPS
7
10
42%
PIRAMAL GLASS
78
110
41%
ASTEC LIFE SCIENCE
57
80
40%
KENNA METAL
350
485
38%
COSMO FERRITES
13
18
38%
POLY MEDICURE
130
180
38%
AMCO INDIA
35
48
37%
ARIES AGRO
108
147
36%
APCOTEX INDUSTRIES
112
153
36%
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL HOUSE
165
224
35%
KIRLOSKAR PNUEMATIC
402
540
34%
GUJ RECLAIM
730
985
34%
WIRES AND FABRIKS
110
148
34%
ABM KNOWLEDGE
45
60
33%
MAZDA LTD
98
129
31%
IGARSHI MOTORS
60
79
31%
BHAGIRATHA CHEM
70
91
30%
INFOTRCK SYSCOM
25
32
28%




MUKAND ENGINEERING
48
60
25%
STERLING TOOLS
97
122
25%
TALWALKER
162
203
25%
AHLCON PARENTERALS
64
80
25%
TIMKEN INDIA
125
156
24%
LANCO INDUSTRIES
65
80
23%
SICAL LOGISTICS
85
104
22%
ARIES AGRO
122
147
20%
JYOTI LTD
82
99
20%
ACRYSIL
128
153
19%
JAGATJIT IND
65
77
18%




LAKSHMI ELECTRIC CONTROL
238
280
17%
SRI ADHIKARI BROTHERS
32
37
15%
JSW ENERGY
115
133
15%
INDSIL HYDRO
76
88
15%
FORTIS HEALTHCARE
138
160
15%
GEI INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM
120
138
15%
MODI NATURALS
14
16
14%
ADANI POWER
114
129
13%
RUNGTA IRRIGATION
58
66
13%
PIRAMAL GLASS
97
110
13%
RISHI LAZER
58
65
12%
ALPHAGEO
215
242
12%
ORCHID CHEMICALS
161
180
11%
PUNJAB CHEMICALS
135
150
11%
CENLUBE INDUSTRIES
20
22
10%
HARITHA SEATING
99
109
10%
RELIGARE TECHNOVA
85
93
9%
VESUVIUS INDIA
251
274
9%
KULKARNI POWER
83
91
9%
GOA CARBON
111
120
8%
MULTIBASE INDIA
35
38
8%
LOKESH MACHINE
49
53
8%
GENUS POWER
210
227
8%  
KAVERI SEED COMPANY
272
293
7%
VELJAN DENISON
375
399
6%
SIKA INTERPLANT
70
74
5%
RISHI LAZER CUTTING
52
55
5%
SUKHJIT STARCH
169
177
4%
VXL INSTRUMENTS
32
33
3%
FLUIDOMAT
29
30
3%
     INDAGE VINTNERS
52
53
2%






-->OUT OF THE RED COLOURED ,ONLY 5 SCRIPS ARE CURRENTLY TRADING MORE THAN 10% BELOW THE RECOMMENDED PRICE

OTHER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCRIPS TWO COMPANIES ARE RECOMMENDED TO AVOID - BECKONS INDUSTRIES AND FCS SOFTWARE



-->I AM RECEIVING LOT OF QUERIES WHETHER WE HAVE ANY PAID SERVICE . IN THIS REGARD I WOULD LIKE TO REITERATE THAT I AM NOT RUNNING ANY PAID SERVICE AND IT IS ONLY AN EFFORT TO HELP RETAIL INVESTORS .EXPECTING YOUR PARTICIPATION AND PRAYERS AHEAD.





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